David Friedberg Destroys the House Spending Bill: "Americans should be ashamed."

Summary

David Friedberg gives an extended critique of the House tax and spending bill, calling it a discard that leaves the annual deficit unchanged at roughly $2.5 trillion while extending the 2017 tax cuts and adding new programs. He argues the United States is in an unacknowledged fiscal emergency: $37 trillion of debt, interest expense near $2 trillion a year or about 7% of GDP, and a 30-year Treasury yield already near 5% as buyers demand more for default risk. He describes a debt death spiral in which refinancing at higher rates widens the deficit further and pushes long yields toward 6-7%. Jason Calacanis supplies the debt-by-administration chart and raises de-dollarization, while Friedberg proposes two rules: no new spending, and every continuing program reset to 2019 levels.

• House bill extends the 2017 tax cuts through 2034 and is estimated to reduce revenue by $4.1 trillion over ten years.
• Friedberg says the bill yields no real change in the annual deficit, which he puts near $2.5 trillion a year, about 8% of GDP.
• The 30-year Treasury yield is described as kissing 5%, with interest costs already around $1.9-2 trillion a year, or 7% of GDP.
• He lays out a debt death spiral: doubts about repayment raise yields, higher refinancing costs widen the deficit, and the cycle repeats.
• Proposed cuts are called cosmetic: SNAP falls from $120 billion to $90 billion but stays 50% above 2019, and Medicaid cuts are $60 billion out of $820 billion.
• His two rules would be to line-item out all new spending and return every continuing program to pre-COVID 2019 budget levels.
• Tips and overtime tax exclusions are framed as pandering that will generate widespread loopholes and gamesmanship.
• Promised new revenue from land leases, the gold immigration card and faster growth cannot be spent before it actually arrives.