“중동 전쟁 뒤에 숨겨진 미국의 진짜 목적” | 권효재 COR Energy Insight 대표 [긴급인터뷰]

Summary

Kwon Hyo-jae, CEO of COR Energy Insight, analyzes the oil market amid Middle East tensions and the UAE's exit from OPEC+. He predicts oil prices will decline to $70 within a year due to demand peak and supply increases. He also discusses the US AI energy crisis, potential geopolitical bargains with China over Iran, and the risk of US refined export bans.

• UAE leaves OPEC+ and aligns with US and Israel, threatening oil supply stability.
• US shale production is ramping up, and UAE plans to increase output if Hormuz Strait reopens.
• China's EV adoption has already peaked mobility oil demand, reducing long-term crude needs.
• The speaker expects oil to fall back to $70/barrel within one year with 70% probability.
• The US may threaten to ban refined petroleum exports to control domestic gasoline prices.
• Middle East security costs for allies are likely to rise as the US shifts policy.
• AI data center electricity shortage is a key US concern, requiring massive investment.
• US-China negotiations may involve semiconductor equipment as a bargaining chip over Iran.