Michael Oliver: “Bitcoin Is Broken” — Why Silver, Gold & Commodities Aren’t Done
Summary
- Silver Market State: Silver is currently trading around $76 (in this 2026 timeline), having pulled back from a recent high. Oliver characterizes this as a "midpoint stumble" in a massive bull run, projecting targets of $300–$500 based on historical inflation-adjusted setups.
- Bitcoin Collapse: Bitcoin peaked at $128,000 and has crashed to ~$66,000. Oliver declares the asset "broken" based on long-term momentum divergence, predicting further downside potentially to $20,000.
- Commodity Supercycle: The Bloomberg Commodity Index has broken out, signaling a new leg up. Oil is expected to surge from ~$63 to the mid-$90s rapidly, catching markets off guard.
- Equities Outlook: The S&P 500 is in a topping process but likely has one final rally to ~7,100 before a significant downturn. A crash is not imminent until the 5,400 level is breached.
Trade Ideas
Bitcoin peaked at $128,000 but momentum indicators made lower highs (divergence) and broke a 3-year structural floor at $107,000. It is now trading ~$66,000. Price follows momentum. The breakdown of long-term momentum structure indicates the bull market is over and the asset is "broken." The current level is likely just a pause before further downside, potentially targeting $20,000. SHORT / AVOID. Do not buy the dip; the structural trend has inverted. A sudden reclamation of the $107,000 level would reverse the momentum signal.
Michael Oliver
Momentum Structural Analysis
Gold's long-term annual momentum has no broken structures. Previous bull markets (1980, 2011) saw 8-fold gains from bear market lows. If gold merely replicates the 8-fold dimension of past cycles, the target is ~$8,000–$8,500. The current pullback is non-structural and healthy. LONG. Maintain core positions for the macro move. A break in annual momentum structure (currently far below market price).
Michael Oliver
Momentum Structural Analysis
Oil is trading around $63, but momentum metrics broke out of a massive base/downtrend last month without any major headlines. Oil is historically cheap ("off the page dirt cheap") relative to money supply and other assets. The momentum breakout implies a rapid 50% surge to the mid-$90s is imminent, regardless of current geopolitical news. LONG. Energy is joining the broader commodity breakout. Deflationary bust or demand destruction from a recession.
Michael Oliver
Momentum Structural Analysis
Silver recently dropped from highs to ~$71–$72, touching its 3-month moving average for the first time in months. Oliver calls this a "midpoint stumble" within a 6-month surge window. Momentum structures remain intact despite the sharp price drop. Historical precedents (1979, 2010) suggest that after this stumble, the "lid comes off," potentially driving prices to $300–$500 as it catches up to inflation-adjusted realities. LONG. The pullback is a buying opportunity before the next explosive leg in March. A sustained break below the 3-month moving average could invalidate the "stumble" thesis.
Michael Oliver
Momentum Structural Analysis
The XAU (Gold/Silver Miners) Index has historically traded at 25% of the price of gold but dropped to 4% in 2015 and remains historically suppressed. Miners are forming a massive relative performance base. A breakout is expected to cause miners to outperform the metal by double-fold (2x leverage to gold's move). LONG. Miners offer deep value leverage to the underlying metals. Rising operational costs (energy) eating into margins despite higher metal prices.
Michael Oliver
Momentum Structural Analysis
The Bloomberg Commodity Index broke out above 106.50 in October and is holding the trend. Commodities are starting a second bull leg after a multi-year consolidation. This confirms a broad sector rotation out of financial assets and into hard assets. LONG. Broad commodity exposure is favored over general equities. Global recession dampening demand for industrial commodities.
Michael Oliver
Momentum Structural Analysis
The S&P 500 is making highs (~6,800) but is in a long-term topping process. However, intermediate metrics suggest a push to 7,050–7,100 is needed to complete the top. A crash is not imminent. The market needs to squeeze higher to clear sentiment before a structural decline begins. Panic selling is not warranted until SPY breaks 5,400. NEUTRAL / WATCH. Upside remains limited, but shorting now is premature. A "melt-up" driven by monetary policy could extend the topping process significantly.
