Chicago Fed President Goolsbee: Several more rate cuts possible if inflation proves to be transitory

"Goods prices, which had been [low] inflation... jumped up... If you take out commodities by the percent tariff content... you see a pretty clear relationship... those goods where there were more tariffs have tended to have higher inflation." Goolsbee explicitly links recent price jumps to tariffs. If tariffs persist or expand (a known macro theme), the cost of goods and raw materials will rise. Commodities act as a hedge against this specific type of "cost-push" inflation. LONG. A hedge against the "warning signs" Goolsbee sees in goods inflation. The tariff impact proves to be a "one-time thing" as Goolsbee hopes, and deflationary pressures return.

Goolsbee states, "I still think there are several more rate cuts that can happen in 2026," provided inflation proves transitory. He defines the neutral rate target "loosely... around 3%." Current rates are restrictive relative to a 3% neutral target. If the Fed executes "several" cuts to normalize policy, yields on the curve must fall, pushing bond prices (TLT) higher. LONG. The destination is lower rates, even if the path is bumpy. Inflation remains "stalled out around 3%," forcing the Fed to hold rates higher for longer.