Sen. Ted Cruz: We will see a new regime in Iran in the next few weeks

In terms of the oil prices, we've seen a temporary spike. I don't think it will be extended. Over the long term, this will put downward pressure on oil prices. Having Iran led by a government that is not a terrorist organization... will result in greater global supply. The current geopolitical risk premium in oil is based on fears of supply disruption. If the US successfully forces a regime change in Iran without a protracted war, the risk premium will evaporate. Furthermore, a normalized, non-sanctioned Iran would add significant crude supply to the global market, driving prices down. SHORT oil via USO as the conflict nears a resolution and new Iranian supply threatens to flood the market. The conflict escalates, Iran successfully mines the Strait of Hormuz, or the regime change fails, leading to a protracted war and sustained supply disruptions.

The possibility of an executive order by the President of the United States to prevent all of the government from doing business with Anthropic... it appears now that the deal that's been reached between the Pentagon and OpenAI is actually quite similar. Anthropic is pushing back against military applications of its AI, risking a total ban from US government contracts. Meanwhile, OpenAI is actively partnering with the Pentagon. Companies that provide AI infrastructure and defense integration without ideological restrictions (like Microsoft, which backs OpenAI, and Palantir) will monopolize lucrative federal and defense AI budgets. LONG MSFT and PLTR as they capture government market share left behind by Anthropic's restrictive policies. Anthropic reverses its stance to secure government contracts, or broader AI regulations slow down federal procurement of large language models.