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Trump Plans Hormuz Charge, Stocks Steady Before Warsh & CPI | The Opening Trade 7/14/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 14, 2026 at 09:46  |  1:36:12  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Freya — Chief Economist, TS Lombard
Michael Brown — CEO, Travel + Leisure
Marija — Global Head of Equity Research, State Street
Mark Cudmore — Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist
Jim Zelter — Co-President of Apollo Global Management
Tom Mackenzie — Anchor, Bloomberg

Summary

The program covers a spike in oil prices above $85 after Trump reinstated a blockade on Iranian ships and proposed a 20% transit fee through Hormuz. European equities fall while energy shares gain; bonds sell off on inflation worries ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's testimony and US CPI data. Japanese bonds rally on talk of adding JGBs to tax-free accounts. Guests offer trade ideas: Freya expects structurally higher yields, Michael Brown likes energy and US small/mid-caps with a 2027 dip-buying strategy, Marija favors mega-cap tech and software while avoiding Europe and small caps, Mark Cudmore sees permanently higher oil, and Jim Zelter anticipates strong US bank earnings.

  • Brent crude hits $85 as US reimposes Iran blockade and 20% Hormuz fee
  • European stocks decline with energy the sole positive sector
  • Global bond yields rise on inflation fears, but Japanese bonds rally on policy support
  • Freya warns of a new macro regime requiring higher yields and rate hikes
  • Michael Brown buys energy, US small/mid-caps, and advocates buying equity dips for 2027
  • Marija stays long mega-cap tech and software, underweights Europe, avoids US small caps
  • Mark Cudmore expects structurally higher oil as Hormuz tensions persist
  • Jim Zelter forecasts robust US bank earnings on strong trading and deal activity
Ideas
Freya Chief Economist, TS Lombard 15:54
Bearish U.S. duration view without explicit short.
Avoid TLT/U.S. duration: macro view says bonds no longer hedge equities, yields can rise further, and U.S. fixed income does not compensate for risk; no explicit short.
TLT MED
Michael Brown CEO, Travel + Leisure 28:52
Buy energy stocks.
Europe is stuck in a rut and cannot pass through higher oil costs, but large-cap value and early cyclicals like energy remain attractive. He would still be buying energy stocks.
XLE HIGH
Michael Brown CEO, Travel + Leisure 29:33
Buy US equity dips for 2027.
With a sanguine inflation and earnings outlook for the second half, investors should start accumulating U.S. equities on pullbacks in preparation for gains in 2027.
SPY MED
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 40:54
Structurally higher oil price.
The tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran will continue indefinitely, Hormuz shipping will not normalize this year or maybe ever, requiring a structurally higher oil price premium.
BNO HIGH
Marija Global Head of Equity Research, State Street 52:47
Stay long mega-cap tech.
Buying the dip in tech has been a winning strategy due to very predictable earnings. Mega-cap technology stocks remain a core holding.
XLK HIGH
Marija Global Head of Equity Research, State Street 53:33
Buy software stocks.
Software has been sold very aggressively and now shows stabilizing revenues and institutional investors beginning to buy back, offering an attractive entry point.
IGV HIGH
Marija Global Head of Equity Research, State Street 55:06
Avoid European equities.
European equities are one of their least favorable regions due to insufficient turning growth and high sensitivity to energy shocks; they remain underweight European stocks.
VGK HIGH
Marija Global Head of Equity Research, State Street 55:15
Overweight Asian equities.
Asian equities are favored over Europe because of better growth dynamics and relative resilience within the global equity landscape.
AAXJ HIGH
Marija Global Head of Equity Research, State Street 56:19
Avoid US small-cap stocks.
U.S. small-cap stocks appear fragile with a quarter of companies still losing margins, high interest rates are detrimental, and the expected broadening out has not materialized in fundamentals.
IWM HIGH
Jim Zelter Co-President of Apollo Global Management 86:51
US bank earnings will be strong.
Expects U.S. bank earnings to be quite strong, driven by extraordinary inter-stock volatility, heavy financing activity, robust M&A, and a strong capital markets pipeline.
KBE MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 14, 2026, features Freya, Michael Brown, Mark Cudmore, Marija, Jim Zelter discussing TLT, XLE, SPY, BNO, XLK, IGV, VGK, AAXJ, IWM, KBE. 10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Freya, Michael Brown, Mark Cudmore, Marija, Jim Zelter  · Tickers: TLT, XLE, SPY, BNO, XLK, IGV, VGK, AAXJ, IWM, KBE