July 14 Closing Market Review: Collapsed Investor Sentiment and Outpouring Sell-off, Where is the Stalled Market Heading?

Summary

A closing market review on July 14, 2025, with host Hong Seonae and guests Kim Jang-yeol (Center Head, Unistory Asset Management) and Lee Kwon-hee (CEO, WiseWeave). The Korean market experienced extreme intraday volatility, with KOSDAQ triggering a sell-side circuit breaker and KOSPI briefly breaking below 6,500 before recovering into positive territory. The discussion revolves around how leveraged ETF-driven mechanical selling has distorted valuations, forcing retail capitulation while foreign and institutional investors accumulate. The speakers identify actionable ideas in US semiconductors, Korean semiconductor equipment, a short-term bounce in KOSPI futures, and unjustified sell-offs in Alteogen, while also noting Samsung’s potential catch-up if the ETF issue is resolved.

• KOSPI and KOSDAQ suffer extreme volatility as leveraged ETF forced selling triggers circuit breaker and pushes KOSDAQ to a yearly low, before a sharp afternoon rebound.
• Kim Jang-yeol argues US semiconductor stocks (Micron, SK hynix ADR) are far superior to Korean shares, supported by hedge fund buying and raised hyperscaler capex forecasts.
• Kim sees a technical short-term bounce in EWY from severely oversold levels (23% drawdown, P/E 6.2x) but maintains a US-preferred stance.
• Kim highlights a big cycle in Korean semiconductor equipment, naming Techwing, Hanmi Semiconductor, PSK, and TES as beneficiaries, citing strong earnings and capex drivers.
• Lee Kwon-hee interprets today's panic selling as retail capitulation; foreign buying in KOSPI200 futures and bullish options positioning point to a near-term rebound.
• Lee details Alteogen’s patent-related sell-off as a mispricing caused by inaccurate press, expecting a sharp rebound once the truth is recognized.
• Kim notes Samsung Electronics could play catch-up with SK hynix if leveraged ETF distortions are removed, while an unconfirmed ADR rumor adds speculative upside.
• Geopolitical noise around Iran and US CPI data are acknowledged but seen as unlikely to derail the near-term technical recovery.