Ideas
Avoid above-CDI risk; park short-term.
After the Master case and FGTS-related liquidity, investors should not rush into fixed-income products yielding above CDI. With Selic at 15%, above-CDI applications carry more risk than attractive return. He recommends waiting a few days, parking in very short-term liquidity and high-grade bank CDBs, not anything similar to Master, until a better decision can be made.
Gold benefits from central-bank buying and debasement.
China and the world are buying gold; the US is financing deficits with short-term debt; fiat debasement supports scarce monetary assets. Gold near $4,936 should surpass $5,000; $10,000 in 2026 seems exaggerated, but he is positioned in gold and expects it to benefit. He also sees gold as a possible long-term unit of account.
Bitcoin is positioned to benefit long-term.
He is positioned in Bitcoin and expects both gold and Bitcoin to benefit from fiat debasement. Bitcoin is a moral alternative to government-imposed money, offering apolitical money outside the financial system. Near term, gold and silver may lead, but he expects Bitcoin to resume and gain; he would not bet on gold outperforming Bitcoin in 2026.
Japan fiscal endgame pressures JGBs and yen.
Japan's debt exceeds 200% of GDP, fiscal expansion and tax cuts would worsen the deficit, and JGB yields are rising to historic levels. The BOJ already owns over 40% of JGBs and may be forced to monetize more while inflation is around 3% and the yen depreciates. This is an unsustainable endgame, concerning for investors, with something eventually having to give.
Japan fiscal endgame pressures JGBs and yen.
Japan's debt exceeds 200% of GDP, fiscal expansion and tax cuts would worsen the deficit, and JGB yields are rising to historic levels. The BOJ already owns over 40% of JGBs and may be forced to monetize more while inflation is around 3% and the yen depreciates. This is an unsustainable endgame, concerning for investors, with something eventually having to give.
PGMs not a gold-like protection asset.
Platinum and other PGMs are not a substitute for gold as monetary protection. Although platinum is scarcer than gold and PGMs are benefiting from the current precious-metals rally, their demand is primarily industrial, not monetary/protective.
Oil, commodities real prices trend lower.
Oil differs from scarce monetary assets like gold because it is consumed, supply is volatile, demand grows but technology improves efficiency, and supply tends to grow. Over 5-10-20 years, inflation-adjusted oil and commodity prices tend to be lower than today; nominal commodity prices are not good evidence of currency debasement. Venezuela will take years to impact global supply, though geopolitical shocks can cause spikes.
OBTC3 discount unjustified; low debt, reserves.
OranjeBTC is trading below the NAV of its Bitcoin holdings despite a low-debt, low-fixed-cost structure, proof of reserves, and top custodians. The fall is due to global negative sentiment toward Bitcoin treasury companies, Bitcoin's correction since its Oct 7 listing one day after the all-time high, and forced selling from early foreign/family-and-friends investors amid low liquidity. Fundamentals do not justify the discount, and he continues to believe in the company.
Brazilian equities still offer attractive risk-reward.
Brazilian equities remain in an excellent risk-reward zone after more than a year. The external scenario is favorable for Brazil and emerging markets, the domestic scenario is uncertain but not disastrous, and markets are increasingly positioned positively. The Ibovespa hit 176k, EWZ surpassed 35, and he sees a positive trend.
Emerging markets trend positive on external scenario.
He says the external scenario is favorable for Brazil and emerging markets and that Brazilian stocks, like other emerging markets, remain in a positive trend. This is a brief positive view on emerging markets as a broad investable theme.
Real can strengthen if favorable scenario confirms.
The real cannot regain its purchasing power from five years ago, but with a favorable Brazil scenario and a positive government change this year, it can strengthen below 5/USD and even to 4/USD. An optimism and credibility shock could cause an undershooting after the prior overshooting to 6.30.
This Fernando Ulrich video, published January 25, 2026,
features Fernando Ulrich
discussing CDB de banco de primeira linha, GLD, BTC, Japanese government bonds, JPY, PPLT, PALL, Rhodium, WTI, DBC, OBTC3.SA, BOVA11.SA, EWZ, EEM, BRL.
11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Fernando Ulrich
· Tickers:
CDB de banco de primeira linha,
GLD,
BTC,
Japanese government bonds,
JPY,
PPLT,
PALL,
Rhodium,
WTI,
DBC,
OBTC3.SA,
BOVA11.SA,
EWZ,
EEM,
BRL
