Name: Has Ethereum Bottomed?
Uploaded: 2025-05-28T21:00:38+00:00
Duration: 415 s

Speakers

Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management

Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol

Summary

The hosts discuss whether Ethereum has bottomed, focusing on ETH/BTC technicals versus Avi's continued skepticism about ETH's ability to deliver. Avi also lays out a bearish Worldcoin thesis, disappointment with Berachain, and positive activity around Virtuals on Base, while Jonah emphasizes focusing on revenue-generating projects and trading only where one has edge.

ETH has outperformed BTC recently but the move is seen as mostly a one-week May event.
Avi sees the ETH/BTC chart bottoming but will not take the trade due to weak ETH fundamentals.
Avi is confident Worldcoin is going lower because of high FDV and emissions.
Berachain is described as disappointing due to weak uptake.
Virtuals is credited with generating activity and bringing money to Base via a new launchpad.
Jonah focuses on DeFiLlama revenue as an objective altcoin investing filter.
Both hosts stress focusing on areas where a trader has edge rather than chasing every crypto theme.

Ideas

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 0:11

ETH setup tempting, but delivery unproven.

Avi sees ETH/BTC as having technically bottomed and recovered a prior breakdown level for the first time in about three years, which creates a potentially attractive risk-reward trade with a roughly 20% stop and 100% upside versus BTC. However, he refuses to take it because ETH still shows zero signs of delivering on anything, has not solved its core issues, and he remains not confident in ETH despite its relative outperformance.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 0:11

ETH setup tempting, but delivery unproven.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 1:46

Virtuals launchpad drives Base activity.

Avi notes Virtuals is doing well on Base and generating activity, bringing money to Base through its new Genesis launchpad. He credits the team for pivoting well to a launchpad model where launching with them gives access to other launches.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 3:23

Worldcoin going lower on emissions.

Avi is confident Worldcoin is going lower. He points to a roughly $14 billion fully diluted valuation versus a ~$2 billion market cap, plus heavy emissions, meaning it would require billions of new dollars to absorb supply. He acknowledges it can squeeze but expects it to be sold into and warns not to get blown out.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 4:18

Berachain disappointing on weak uptake.

Avi says Berachain has been disappointing with little visible uptake. As an investor he is not speaking badly about it, but the lack of traction is concerning; projects in this situation either pivot to find product-market fit or fade, and he hopes Berachain finds value but currently views it as unattractive.

Has Ethereum Bottomed?

Summary

Ideas

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