Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius finds December jobs report ‘not strong’

Summary

Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist, describes the December jobs report as not strong, with weak payroll growth and downward revisions, while noting the unemployment-rate news was better. He says productivity growth has accelerated, lifting the economy's speed limit, though GDP data remain noisy. For 2026, he is in the disinflationary camp, expecting tariff passthrough to fade and CPI to approach 2% by year-end. The discussion includes no explicit trade recommendations.

• Hatzius calls December jobs report not strong; payroll gains weak.
• Unemployment rate fell and prior November reading was revised lower.
• He sees productivity acceleration raising the economy's speed limit.
• GDP data are clouded by tariff front-loading and the shutdown.
• He remains in the disinflationary camp for 2026.
• Tariff passthrough added about 50 basis points to core inflation.
• He expects CPI around 2.1%-2.2% by year-end, depending on tariffs.