Wolfe Research's Marcus on how the Supreme Court may rule on Trump administration tariffs

Summary

Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy and politics at Wolfe Research, discusses the Supreme Court's pending ruling on Trump administration tariffs. He expects a middle-ground decision rather than a sweeping rebuke and thinks tariff refunds are unlikely. Marcus also expects the administration to reconstitute tariffs near current levels through fallback legal authorities, leaving the tariff base similar and not broadening sector exposure.

• Supreme Court has not ruled on Trump tariffs; delay suggests difficult deliberations.
• Marcus expects Roberts and Barrett to seek a middle-ground tariff decision.
• He leans against tariff refunds due to logistics and court concerns.
• If refunds occurred, they would add $130B, about 0.5% of GDP, in fiscal stimulus.
• Marcus expects the administration to reconstitute tariffs close to current levels.
• He rejects the idea that Trump will use a court loss as an off-ramp.
• He expects no broadening of tariff exposure beyond current staples and discretionary sectors.