Nic Carter: Quantum Threatens $600B of Bitcoin

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 09, 2026 at 16:05  |  1:06:28  |  Delphi Digital
Speakers
Nick Carter — General Partner, Castle Island Ventures
Tom Shaughnessy — Co-Founder, Delphi Digital

Summary

Nic Carter discusses the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin, arguing it has moved from theoretical FUD to a material risk. He estimates a 70–80% chance of a quantum break affecting Bitcoin by 2035 and says Bitcoin developers are woefully unprepared. He details vulnerable coins, Satoshi’s P2PK addresses, migration challenges, and possible geopolitical seizure scenarios. He also notes record quantum investment and the US–China race.

  • Nic Carter researched quantum risk to Bitcoin for six months, speaking with physicists and Nobel laureates.
  • He estimates a 70–80% chance of a quantum break affecting Bitcoin by 2035 and 25–30% by 2030.
  • Vulnerable BTC includes Satoshi-era P2PK coins, reused addresses, and Taproot wallets, totaling roughly 6 million BTC.
  • Bitcoin’s slow governance and unprepared developers make a post-quantum migration difficult and urgent.
  • Possible responses include a contentious fork to freeze/move Satoshi coins or a private firm requisitioning them for the US government.
  • Quantum computing investment hit a record ~$10B in 2025, with governments mandating post-quantum cryptography timelines.
  • Nic has not sold his Bitcoin but would consider selling if developers do not mobilize within a year.
  • The host raises relative-value ideas around Ethereum and Solana, but Nic cautions all blockchains face hard upgrades.
Ideas
Nick Carter General Partner, Castle Island Ventures 3:38
Bitcoin quantum risk underpriced; devs unprepared.
Nic argues quantum computing is a material and underappreciated risk to Bitcoin. He puts the chance of a quantum break affecting Bitcoin at 70–80% by 2035 and 25–30% by 2030. Roughly 6 million BTC sit in vulnerable address types, including Satoshi-era P2PK coins and reused-address/Taproot wallets where public keys are exposed; Satoshi’s ~1–2 million coins cannot be moved without an unprecedented community fork/confiscation. Bitcoin governance is extremely slow (only two upgrades in 10 years), developers score 1/100 on preparedness, and a post-quantum migration would require years of consensus, testing, and user migration. He has not sold his BTC yet and is betting on developer ingenuity, but would sell if the developer community is not sufficiently mobilized within a year; he believes quantum risk is already weighing on BTC price.
BTC HIGH
Nick Carter General Partner, Castle Island Ventures 8:12
Quantum computing theme is accelerating.
Nic highlights quantum computing as a real and accelerating field: 2025 was the highest year of quantum computing investment in history, with roughly $10 billion deployed, and the consensus among physicists is that useful quantum computing will arrive in 10–15 years, possibly sooner. Governments are treating it as strategically critical, with NIST directing US agencies to phase out quantum-vulnerable cryptography by 2030/2035, and the US–China race resembles the 1939 atomic bomb race. Many quantum stocks/companies may be scams or fail, but only one successful quantum computer is needed for the Bitcoin threat to be real.
QUBT MED
Up Next
17:55
Mike Tirico And Cris Collinsworth Say A New Generation Of QBs Are Reshaping The NFL
CNBC · Jan 09
5:18
Supreme Court Skips Trump Tariff Ruling on Friday
Bloomberg Markets · Jan 09
1:16
US Adds 50,000 Jobs, Less Than Expected
Bloomberg Markets · Jan 09
2:45
Meta Signs Multi-Gigawatt Nuclear Deals to Power AI Data Centers
Bloomberg Markets · Jan 09
25:28
Trading the Markets: January 07, 2026
Real Vision · Jan 09

This Delphi Digital video, published January 09, 2026, features Nick Carter discussing BTC, QUBT. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Nick Carter  · Tickers: BTC, QUBT