Jobs Day | Bloomberg Surveillance
Speakers
Stephen Major
— Global Macro Adviser, Tradition Dubai
Priya Misra
— Portfolio Manager, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Kate Moore
— Head of Thematic Strategy, BlackRock
Daan Struyven
— Head of Oil Research, Goldman Sachs
Robert Tipp
— PGIM Fixed Income Managing Director, Chief Investment Strategist, Head of Global Bonds
Jeffrey Rosenberg
— Senior Portfolio Manager, BlackRock
Doug Burgum
— US Secretary of the Interior
Jeannette Lowe
— Strategas
Kelly Ann Shaw
— Akin Gump Strauss Hauer
Claudia Sahm
— Economist, Federal Reserve Board
Jason Draho
— UBS Chief Investment Office Head of Asset Allocation
Stephanie Roth
— Chief Economist, Wolfe Research
Lisa Abramowicz
— Anchor, Bloomberg Television and Radio
Annmarie Hordern
— Reporter, Bloomberg
Dani Burger
— Anchor, Bloomberg Television
Jonathan Ferro
— Anchor, Bloomberg Television
Summary
Bloomberg Surveillance on January 9 focuses on the December payrolls report, the Supreme Court's pending ruling on IEEPA tariffs, and the White House's push into housing, energy and Venezuela policy. Guests debate whether the labor market is stabilizing or still weakening, how the Fed will respond, and whether Treasury yields, credit, mortgage spreads and small caps offer opportunities. Commodity and equity views diverge, with Goldman Sachs bearish on oil prices while other guests favor gold, US equities, emerging Asia and long-duration bonds.
- December payrolls came in soft at 50k with downward revisions, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, complicating January Fed-cut expectations.
- The Supreme Court may rule on the legality of IEEPA tariffs, with potential refunds and renewed tariff authorities in focus.
- The White House is pressing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200B in mortgage bonds and meeting oil executives about rebuilding Venezuela's oil sector.
- Rates strategists differ: some favor intermediate and long-duration Treasuries, while others avoid duration and prefer gold as a hedge.
- Equity views favor US and emerging Asia over Europe, with a possible small-cap broadening trade watched by Jeffrey Rosenberg.
- Oil is seen as oversupplied and medium-term bearish by Goldman Sachs, while the Interior Secretary remains bullish on US energy-sector opportunities.
- Credit and agency MBS are cited as attractive fixed-income areas, with mortgage spreads potentially tightening.
- The labor market, inflation path, and Fed leadership uncertainty remain central to market positioning.
Ideas
Treasury yields biased lower.
The trend in economic data relative to expectations has softened, wage growth is consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target, and there is fundamental support to keep lowering the fed funds rate below forwards. The Treasury market has held in an unusually tight range, and the asymmetry is skewed toward lower rates; if policy rates move toward 2% or less, the 10-year yield could fall to a 3% handle or low 3s. He does not see rate hikes and is skewed toward opening the floor for rates.
Fade Treasury bear steepening.
If additional fiscal stimulus or tariff dividends push rates higher, she would fade any bear steepening in the Treasury curve, viewing it as an opportunity. Low hiring and rising firing are tail risks that could send rates lower.
Own 5-10 year Treasuries.
With hiring still low and broad inflation measures heading lower, the Fed can cut one or two more times this year. The front end is trickier because it requires a clear view on inflation and unemployment, but the 5- to 10-year part of the curve has more conviction to stay in a low range. She says that is what you own, especially if you own risk assets, because the biggest risk is that the economy struggles amid complacency about Goldilocks.
Agency MBS spreads can tighten.
The Trump administration's direction for Fannie and Freddie to buy up to $200 billion in mortgage bonds can bring a new marginal buyer into the mortgage market and compress mortgage spreads. It will not produce a 100-basis-point drop in mortgage rates because the 10-year yield is the bigger component, but it helps keep volatility low and should tighten mortgage spreads, making agency MBS attractive.
Like owning credit.
The U.S. economy is holding up, the consumer is resilient, hiring is slow, and inflation is heading lower, which supports tight credit spreads. She likes owning credit and also likes Treasury rates for a balanced portfolio.
Constructive on US equities.
The U.S. economy is in a very good place and the U.S. is the best fundamental house on the block. She is constructive on equities and does not favor rotating out of the U.S. just for the sake of rotation; U.S. returns have been driven by earnings, and high-quality U.S. equities should keep benefiting from earnings growth.
Gold is favored diversifier.
She uses gold as a diversifier across multiple parts of the portfolio and continues to add to the position. Duration no longer hedges as well, and gold has fundamental support from central bank buying, other asset allocators diversifying, and questions around the dollar. She uses it against risk and against duration.
Avoid long-duration bonds.
She does not like the role duration is playing as a hedge or diversifier in multi-asset portfolios. Over risk-off periods, duration and equities have not had their historical relationship, long-end yields have reason to stay higher than before, fiscal discipline is lacking globally, and inflation may be spicier than the market expects. She expects rates to stay high and go higher.
Favor high-quality US equities.
If investors want to diversify or rotate, they should add to high-quality U.S. equities where the majority of returns are driven by earnings, not multiple expansion and currency. European multiples are lower for real reasons around profitability, margins and free cash flow.
Avoid European equities.
Europe looks cheaper than the U.S., but for real reasons including lower profitability, margins and free cash flow. Fiscal spending outside defense is not exciting and is fairly well priced. She does not think cheapness alone is a strong enough reason to own Europe, preferring U.S. and emerging Asia earnings prospects.
Favor emerging Asia equities.
She sees the best earnings prospects in the U.S. and emerging Asia, making emerging Asia a preferred area for equity exposure outside the U.S.
Oil prices seen lower.
Goldman expects an oversupplied oil market with around 2 million barrels per day of excess supply, keeping Brent averaging $56 and WTI $52 this year. Higher long-run Venezuelan production adds about $4 of downside to the Brent base case. Geopolitical risks such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela can create short-term upside, but the medium-term fundamental view is more bearish and lower prices are needed to rebalance the market.
Bullish US oil and gas.
The administration is focused on energy security and affordability, and Doug Burgum sees strong industry interest in rebuilding Venezuela's oil infrastructure and in U.S. energy development. He cites the world's largest oil reserves, lower shale breakevens from technology and deregulation, and growing energy demand from economic growth and the AI arms race, calling it a banner opportunity for the U.S. and Western Hemisphere energy industry.
Robert Tipp
PGIM Fixed Income Managing Director, Chief Investment Strategist, Head of Global Bonds
132:46
Buy long-duration bonds.
Despite one month of stronger unemployment, the longer-term trend of rising unemployment and wage growth roughly matching inflation keeps the Fed on course for cautious cuts. With long-term Treasuries near 5% and long-term credit yields attractive, this is a strategic buy point for bonds. Money fund yields are likely to fall from 3.6%, and investors should extend duration as asset allocation shifts toward bonds, supporting the back end.
Watch small-cap broadening.
The jobs report showed weak headline hiring but a lower unemployment rate and solid 3.8% wage growth. The key question is whether real wage growth can support consumption and rotate the economy away from the wealth-effect/AI-led support of 2025. If broadening in consumption supported by real wages develops, that could be the new story in 2026 and would favor small caps/Russell outperformance, though this week's data is not yet enough to confirm it.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 09, 2026, features Stephen Major, Priya Misra, Kate Moore, Daan Struyven, Doug Burgum, Robert Tipp, Jeffrey Rosenberg discussing TLT, US Treasury curve flattener, 5-10 year US Treasuries, Agency MBS, US Corporate Credit, SPY, GLD, QUAL, VGK, EEMA, BNO, WTI, XLE, IGLB, IWM. 15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Stephen Major, Priya Misra, Kate Moore, Daan Struyven, Doug Burgum, Robert Tipp, Jeffrey Rosenberg · Tickers: TLT, US Treasury curve flattener, 5-10 year US Treasuries, Agency MBS, US Corporate Credit, SPY, GLD, QUAL, VGK, EEMA, BNO, WTI, XLE, IGLB, IWM