Ideas
Trump sanctions keep crude oil supported
Trump's increased sanctions and enforcement against Venezuela, Iran, and Russia have trapped large volumes of oil on water and kept sanctioned barrels from fully clearing the market. Production is not the same as available supply, so a paper surplus of roughly 3 million b/d has not fully borne down on prices. Rory argues Trump has therefore been a net bullish factor for crude, and prices would be much lower without these policies.
Chevron offers Venezuela recovery upside
Chevron never left Venezuela and retained assets and sanctions waivers through different governments, unlike companies that would need to rebuild from scratch. Any recovery in Venezuelan production or further easing of sanctions is therefore upside optionality for Chevron; Rory says it is reasonably all upside for them.
Front crude time spreads follow monthly yo-yo
Since April, prompt crude time spreads have followed a recurring monthly pattern: the front weakens early in the month, flirts with contango, then a mid-month supply or geopolitical shock drives it back into pronounced backwardation before it slides again. If the pattern repeats after the earlier Iran-driven move, the front curve should stay supported into month-end and then fall back as the market again awaits the surplus.
Sell WTI 59/55 put spread
Crude can look oversupplied on paper but is trading with a soft floor because sanctions enforcement and oil-on-water bottlenecks keep barrels produced but not fully available. The market has repeatedly respected mid-to-high $50s support. Patrick prefers to monetize downside premium with defined risk via a Feb. 17, 2026 WTI put credit spread: sell the $59 put at $2.35, buy the $55 put at $0.80 for $1.55 net credit, max profit if WTI >= $59, breakeven $57.45, max loss $2.45 below $55, with roughly 62% implied probability above breakeven.
Hedge crowded S&P 500
The S&P trend is clearly up, but positioning is so crowded that a sharp correction would not require much. Erik put on the S&P hedge Patrick recommended and agrees that protection makes sense at current levels.
Watch S&P breakdown below 6850-6900
The MAG 7 ETF is deteriorating and the financial sector ETF has broken down after JPMorgan and Bank of America earnings, threatening key leadership. If S&P futures break the 6850-6900 line in the sand, CTAs and other systematic traders could begin profit-taking and usher in a first-quarter correction; bulls remain in control only while pullbacks are bought.
Avoid MAG 7 ETF
The MAG 7 ETF has continued to deteriorate as mega-cap names face selling pressure, creating a drag on index leadership and adding to the risk of a deeper S&P correction.
Avoid financial sector ETF
After JPMorgan and Bank of America earnings, the financial sector ETF has clearly broken to the downside, attempting to derail one of the recent leadership sectors. Further earnings disappointment could add to S&P correction risk.
Dollar trend reversal still unconfirmed
The US Dollar Index has taken out its 200-day moving average and is setting up a golden cross, so the established downtrend is changing. But Patrick is not convinced it is a new uptrend; recent strength may be geopolitical headline-driven and could retrace if Trump shifts to making a deal. He sees roughly 98-99.5 as neutral and will not take strong positioning without a clear trend.
Gold faces short-term geopolitical retracement
Gold hit a fresh all-time high and activated measured-move targets around 4,900-5,100. But much of the recent upside was geopolitical risk premium; if Iran strike speculation fades, gold is overbought and could see a significant short-term correction before the longer-term bull market continues.
Precious metals path of least resistance higher
Gold continues to run, with Patrick's upper targets around 4,800-5,000; silver and platinum are making new highs, and there is no evidence the wind has been taken out of the sails. The path of least resistance is higher. Silver is parabolic with large daily swings and could eventually see a blowoff, but that is not yet a reason to fade the group.
Copper grinding toward 640-650 targets
Copper is trading at 52-week highs and remains very well bid, with no immediate sign of topping. Patrick sees upper measured-move targets around 640-650 and wants to see whether copper can finish those moves.
Uranium is big trade of 2026
The structural rally in uranium and uranium miners is clearly on. Even the lagging URA ETF closed above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its recent correction, the final technical confirmation Patrick needed. Short-term stochastics are overbought so consolidation is possible, but he expects considerably higher prices, has heavy long exposure, and calls uranium his big trade of 2026.
Treasury rangebound, waiting for catalyst
The 10-year Treasury has been incredibly quiet and remains in a very tight range despite jobs, CPI, PPI, and retail sales data. Yields could eventually move in a big way, but until a catalyst starts the next repricing, the market stays in purgatory and is mainly a monitoring setup.
This Macro Voices video, published January 15, 2026,
features Rory Johnston, Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend
discussing WTI, BNO, CVX, Crude oil prompt time spreads, WTI 59/55 bull put spread, SPY, MAGS, XLF, DXY, GLD, SILVER, PPLT, COPPER, URA, 10-Year Treasury Note.
14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Rory Johnston,
Patrick Ceresna,
Erik Townsend
· Tickers:
WTI,
BNO,
CVX,
Crude oil prompt time spreads,
WTI 59/55 bull put spread,
SPY,
MAGS,
XLF,
DXY,
GLD,
SILVER,
PPLT,
COPPER,
URA,
10-Year Treasury Note
