Iran War Reignites ‘Geopolitical Commodity Warfare’; Gold, Oil, Treasuries At Risk | Nomi Prins

Summary

Nomi Prins discusses how geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure, are distorting commodity markets, shifting central bank reserve allocations away from US Treasuries into gold, and creating investment opportunities in silver, copper, and critical minerals. She argues oil is range-bound, US bonds face declining demand, and gold is in a multi-year bull phase driven by official sector buying.

• Oil prices have normalized from war fears and are likely stuck in the $70-$80 range.
• Central banks are reducing US Treasury holdings and aggressively buying gold, with a record 45% planning to add more this year.
• US long-term yields are being pushed higher by heavier debt issuance and shrinking official demand.
• The silver market shows a huge paper-to-physical distortion that has created a buying opportunity in silver and silver miners.
• Copper remains strong due to supply restrictions and junior developers outside sulfuric-acid-dependent regions are attractive takeover targets.
• Rare earths and hard heavy metals like tungsten, antimony, graphite, and gallium are investable themes amid geopolitical commodity warfare.
• The broad de-dollarisation trend and supply chain reshoring will have long-term impacts on consumer costs and asset prices.