MacroVoices #529 Ole S Hansen: Commodities in The Wake of The Iran Crisis

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 23, 2026 at 20:31  |  1:12:58  |  Macro Voices
Speakers
Ole Hansen — Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank
Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Erik Townsend — Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager

Summary

Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank discusses the broad impacts of the Iran crisis on energy, metals, and agriculture. He highlights extreme backwardation in crude oil, a higher structural floor for Brent, supply constraints in copper, and the risk of food inflation from fertilizer shortages. The postgame segment features Patrick Ceresna's trade of the week: a bull call spread on deferred WTI, and Erik Townsend's S&P 500 hedge.

  • Ole Hansen argues the energy disruption will last longer than markets expect, raising the floor for Brent crude to ~$80.
  • Extreme backwardation in crude provides positive roll yield for long positions in deferred contracts.
  • Copper is supported by robust Chinese demand and supply constraints, including a shortage of sulfuric acid from the Middle East.
  • Fertilizer shortages from the crisis may reduce crop yields, but agricultural markets remain in contango.
  • Gold is consolidating after a sharp correction; long-term bullish case intact but near-term risks remain.
  • Patrick Ceresna presents a bull call spread on December 2026 WTI to capture higher equilibrium prices with defined risk.
  • Erik Townsend hedges S&P 500 with a put spread, expecting equity downside from prolonged energy disruption.
  • Uranium miners show technical strength but are vulnerable to a broader risk-off event.
Trade Ideas
Ole Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank 19:37
New floor higher, value below $80
Brent crude has established a new structural floor around $80 after the Iran-driven supply disruption, and with the backwardation providing positive roll yield, buying deferred contracts at or below $80 offers value because the market is underestimating the duration of the disruption and the difficulty of restarting production.
BNO MED
Ole Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank 41:01
Supply constraints, demand robust, bullish
Copper is supported by robust demand from China (inventory drawdown, premium to import) and significant supply-side constraints, including a shortage of sulfuric acid from the Middle East that is needed for copper processing, making the outlook for copper prices clearly upward.
COPPER MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 51:15
Bull call spread on deferred WTI
The market is underestimating how long the energy disruption will last, and the deferred WTI contracts are undervalued relative to the likely higher equilibrium. A bull call spread on December 2026 WTI captures upside repricing with defined risk and convexity, while using deep in-the-money options to minimize time decay and volatility exposure.
WTI HIGH
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager 55:02
Hedging S&P against energy disruption
The Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz are far from resolved, and the resulting energy disruption will hurt corporate profits and the broader economy. To hedge against this risk, I bought a put spread on S&P 500 futures (6800/6000), expecting equities to decline as the reality of prolonged energy disruption sets in.
SPY HIGH
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This Macro Voices video, published April 23, 2026, features Ole Hansen, Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend discussing BNO, COPPER, WTI, SPY. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ole Hansen, Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend  · Tickers: BNO, COPPER, WTI, SPY