Trade of The Week - MacroVoices #529
Speakers
Patrick Ceresna
— Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Erik Townsend
— Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager
Summary
Patrick Ceresna presents a bull call spread on deferred WTI crude oil to capitalize on a structural shift in the energy market. Erik Townsend discusses his S&P 500 hedges and gold's near-term risks amid the Iran conflict. The hosts also review uranium, gasoline, and the dollar.
- Patrick Ceresna outlines a bull call spread on December 2026 WTI as a capital-efficient way to play higher crude prices.
- Erik Townsend has a new put spread on S&P futures, expecting the energy disruption to trigger a market sell-off.
- Erik views gold as long-term bullish but sees downside risk if oil prices stay elevated.
- The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure are seen as longer-lasting than market expectations.
- Uranium miners show bullish charts but face risk from a broader market correction.
- Gasoline futures are at 52-week highs and may lead crude oil higher.
- The dollar index is driven by euro weakness; a gap fill is possible.
- Overall, the hosts emphasize a cautious stance on equities and energy-related opportunities.
Trade Ideas
Deferred crude oil futures underpriced.
The market is underestimating how long the energy disruption will last. The forward curve shows extreme backwardation, but deferred crude futures are underpriced relative to the likely duration. A bull call spread on December 2026 WTI captures upside repricing with defined risk and reduced volatility sensitivity.
Erik Townsend
Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager
5:54
S&P downside hedge against oil disruption.
The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure will cause a prolonged energy disruption that the market is dismissing. I have bought a put spread on S&P futures (6800/6000) to hedge against a major equity sell-off driven by the economic impact of sustained high oil prices.
Erik Townsend
Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager
15:51
Gold downside risk if oil persists.
Gold is structurally bullish long term but faces near-term headwinds from oil-induced inflation that could last longer than expected. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 4685 is critical; a close below suggests significant downside risk. I am watching this level closely before acting.
Up Next
This Macro Voices video, published April 23, 2026, features Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend discussing WTI, SPY, GOLD. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend · Tickers: WTI, SPY, GOLD