Even if the Fed and the Bank of Japan raise rates at the same time, the stock market impact won't be big? / Why we don't need to worry about yen carry trade unwinding right now | MP Partners CEO Park Byung-chang

Summary

Park Byung-chang, CEO of MP Partners, discusses the market impact of potential Fed and BOJ rate hikes and the risk of yen carry trade unwinding. He argues that the first BOJ hike is less important than repeated hikes, which could narrow rate differentials and trigger carry unwinds, but immediate panic is not needed. He also sees a memory shortage and long-term supply contracts supporting Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, while near-term 3Q earnings and year-end sector rotation offer opportunities. He warns that high US Treasury yields and JGB stress could pressure risk assets.

• BOJ rate hikes and yen carry trade unwind risk are the main macro focus.
• Park says repeated BOJ hikes, not one hike, would be the real trigger for unwinding.
• US big tech and long-term JGBs are flagged as vulnerable if carry unwinds.
• Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are supported by memory shortage and LTAs.
• 3Q earnings and strong Korean exports could act as a near-term catalyst.
• Year-end rotation may favor Korean nuclear, power, infrastructure, security, and robotics stocks.
• High US Treasury yields near 5% could make pensions prefer bonds over equities.
• Park advises investors to prepare for volatility rather than simply waiting.