Urgent HBM4 Data Released… Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Investors Must Check / Will the Semiconductor Landscape Be Upended by Year-End? | SemiCon Research Lab CEO Noh Geun-chang

[#Global Insight] Urgent HBM4 Data Released… Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Investors Must Check / Will the Semiconductor Landscape Be Upended by Year-End? | SemiCon Research Lab CEO Noh Geun-chang
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 16, 2026 at 08:00  |  33:37  |  815 Money Talk (815머니톡)
Speakers
Noh Geun-chang — Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center

Summary

Semiconductor analyst Noh Geun-chang reviews the AI and semiconductor market, arguing that security and AI demand are pushing chip prices higher while pressuring hyperscaler costs. He sees the memory cycle entering a strong 2026, with HBM4 mix lifting ASPs and Samsung gaining HBM share while SK hynix revenue remains resilient. He dismisses China HBM and supply-glut fears as overdone, cites Lam Research's TSV equipment bottleneck, and calls semiconductor stocks attractively valued near a box-range bottom. He also notes ASPEED data showing healthy server CPU demand.

  • Security and AI demand lift chip prices but burden hyperscaler costs.
  • Korean memory leaders lagged peers due to domestic liquidity, with a possible short-term rebound.
  • Memory cycle is expected to remain strong, with 2026 upcycle and 2027 growth.
  • HBM4 mix is seen lifting blended ASP despite HBM3 price concerns.
  • Samsung HBM share gains and foundry logic-die demand are highlighted.
  • SK hynix revenue and dividends are seen resilient despite share shifts.
  • China HBM and supply-glut fears are argued to be overstated.
  • Final view: semiconductor stocks are near a box-range bottom with attractive valuation.
Ideas
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 0:24
Chip price inflation burdens hyperscalers
Higher semiconductor prices from security and AI demand are a cost headwind for hyperscalers, pressuring their stock prices; recent cloud-stock weakness illustrates this.
SKYY MED
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 10:22
Korean memory underperformance may rebound
Korean memory leaders underperformed global peers despite similar industry exposure because of poor domestic liquidity and declining deposits/trading value, but this may set up a short-term rebound or bottoming attempt.
005930.KS 000660.KS LOW
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 13:42
Memory cycle supports record earnings
TrendForce forecasts the HBM market growing from $60B to $600B by 2030 based on TSMC supply-chain checks; the forecast is aggressive, but the speaker remains very bullish and says if it is right, semiconductor investors have little to worry about.
MU HIGH
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 19:29
Lam dominates HBM TSV equipment
Lam Research is described as the sole global supplier of TSV equipment needed to stack HBM, creating a bottleneck for Chinese HBM catch-up and a supply-chain edge for Lam.
LRCX MED
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 28:53
Fab expansions are forecast-driven
Supply glut fears are overdone because TSMC, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron expand capacity based on long-term demand forecasts and fabs take about 3.5 years to build, so current capex is forecast-driven rather than blind overcapacity.
TSM MED
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 32:52
ASPEED signals healthy server CPU demand
ASPEED's August revenue rose 6.7% month-over-month and second-quarter monthly average revenue rose 22%, and the speaker says it is the best leading indicator for general server CPU demand with no abnormal signs yet.
5274.TWO MED
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 33:15
Semiconductors attractive at box-range bottom
Security and AI-driven chip price increases support semiconductor stocks, while the recent pullback has left the sector at the bottom of a box range with attractive valuation.
SMH HIGH
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815 Money Talk (815머니톡) · Sep 16

This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published September 16, 2026, features Noh Geun-chang discussing SKYY, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, MU, LRCX, TSM, 5274.TWO, SMH. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Noh Geun-chang  · Tickers: SKYY, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, MU, LRCX, TSM, 5274.TWO, SMH