We will have 'modestly growing demand' for oil and gas long term, says Ariel's Charles Bobrinskoy

"The world is also consuming more food each year. The diets are getting better. Those are protein based diets. A cow or a chicken consumes a great deal of grain. And so the demand for fertilizer keeps going up. And what Mosaic has is it has assets in North America which don't pay the tariffs..." As emerging global middle classes shift their diets toward meat and poultry, the agricultural sector must produce exponentially more grain to feed livestock. This creates inelastic, compounding demand for crop yields and, by extension, fertilizers. Companies with North American production assets (like Mosaic) have a distinct margin advantage because they avoid international tariffs and high shipping costs in a deglobalizing world. LONG North American fertilizer producers as a structural play on global dietary shifts and a geopolitical hedge against supply chain tariffs. Farmers could temporarily reduce fertilizer application rates if prices spike too high; a global recession could slow the dietary shift toward expensive proteins.

"The market was assuming demand for oil and gas was going to decline. With a move to electric cars. These stocks were trading at incredibly low multiples, seven, eight, nine times earnings... we think that with expansion of the world's economies, that demand for oil and gas is going to increase, not decrease." The market has mispriced traditional energy equities by overly focusing on the long-term transition to EVs while ignoring near-to-medium-term global economic growth. Because baseline energy needs will grow alongside economic expansion, these asset-heavy companies will generate massive cash flows. Buying them at single-digit multiples offers a deep value opportunity with a built-in inflation hedge. LONG traditional energy equities to capitalize on the valuation disconnect between EV optimism and the reality of growing global oil and gas demand. A severe global economic contraction could destroy baseline energy demand; technological breakthroughs could accelerate EV adoption faster than currently projected.