Amos Hochstein on Iran protests: Just taking one person out won't be the solution

Summary

Amos Hochstein discusses Iran's protests and why he sees no clear path to regime change or a simple US military solution. He also talks about Greenland, Venezuela, and oil markets, arguing that Venezuela is not investable at $50-$60 oil and that oil prices are being supported by Iranian protests and limited Venezuelan supply. He warns that sub-$50 oil would force US shale shut-ins and reduce associated natural gas supply.

• Iran protests are economically driven, but no organized opposition or regime cracks are visible yet.
• Hochstein says removing one leader would not ensure regime change in Iran.
• On Venezuela, he says $50-$60 oil is too low to justify investment, and contracts face political risk.
• Oil prices are rising due to Iranian protests and the market's view that Venezuela cannot add supply soon.
• If oil goes below $50, large parts of US shale would shut in.
• Associated natural gas would also be shut in, affecting AI/data centers' energy supply.
• Greenland is a NATO ally; Hochstein sees no need to own it for mining or basing access.