Markets Weekly May 30, 2026

Summary

Joseph Wang reviews a quiet week in markets, noting the stock market's dot-com-like rally and unresolved geopolitical tensions. He discusses disappointing GDP data, elevated PCE inflation, and his recent purchase of 30-year bonds at a 5% yield, arguing they offer strong carry and a hedge against a potential equity bust. He also warns that declining oil stocks due to the Strait of Hormuz closure could cause an oil price spike.

• Stock market continued upward with heavy call buying, reminiscent of the dot-com era.
• Geopolitical tensions remain high; the Strait of Hormuz is closed, drawing down global oil stocks.
• Q1 GDP revised down to 1.6%, below expectations despite AI buildout.
• PCE inflation at 4%, double the Fed's target, supporting a hawkish Fed stance.
• Joseph Wang bought a significant amount of 30-year bonds last week.
• He views the 30-year yield at 5% as attractive for both carry and capital appreciation in a recession.
• Oil prices expected to spike once oil stock drawdown reaches a critical threshold.
• Demographic aging and fiscal deficits are secular inflationary forces.