Stocks, Bonds Rise as Soft CPI Curbs Hike Bets | The Close 7/14/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | July 14, 2026 at 22:07 | 1:29:53 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Phong Le — President & CEO, MicroStrategy

Bloomberg Intelligence — Analyst

Lori Calvasina — Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets

Rebecca Babin — Senior Energy Trader, CIBC Private Wealth

Erica Najarian — UBS Financials Analyst

David Chiaverini — Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

Romaine Bostick — Anchor, Bloomberg

Summary

Markets rallied on a soft CPI print that cooled rate-hike fears, lifting bonds and tech stocks. Big bank earnings showed record equities trading revenues, but IBM's profit warning on software spending cut 25% from the stock, dragging the software sector. Strategy's CEO reaffirmed long-term Bitcoin buying plans and a path to par for preferred shares. RBC upgraded tech to overweight and downgraded utilities. Oil prices stayed elevated as U.S. strikes on Iran resumed and refined product shortages persisted.

June CPI showed core inflation declining year-over-year for the first time in 2026, sending Treasury yields sharply lower and boosting the Nasdaq 100 by over 1%.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testified before Congress that the committee has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.
IBM fell 25% after its CEO warned customers are cutting software spending to fund purchases of expensive AI server storage and memory.
JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo reported strong earnings driven by surging equities trading, though Citi slipped on a higher expense outlook.
Strategy (MSTR) built $3 billion in cash reserves, plans to return STRK preferred shares to par, and remains committed to being the largest buyer of Bitcoin.
RBC upgraded the technology sector to overweight, downgraded utilities to underweight, and moved consumer discretionary to market weight.
Refined oil product prices are expected to stay elevated longer than crude due to a global refining capacity shortage and Russia's diesel export ban.
Morgan Stanley is expected to follow with strong results when it reports, driven by its dominance in equities trading and Asian markets.

Ideas

Phong Le President & CEO, MicroStrategy 24:31

STRK will recover to par value.

Strategy's plan is to get the STRK preferred shares back to par value by building a U.S. dollar reserve, offering buybacks, and demonstrating execution, after which it intends to issue more equity and buy Bitcoin. The recent cash build already lifted STRK from the lows, and the plan provides a clear path back to par.

Phong Le President & CEO, MicroStrategy 26:24

MSTR built to outperform Bitcoin long-term.

MSTR's primary goal is to outperform Bitcoin over time. When MSTR trades above net asset value, shareholders give it credit for performance above Bitcoin, allowing it to issue more equity. The capital structure is designed to benefit from Bitcoin bull cycles even if it underperforms slightly in bear periods.

Phong Le President & CEO, MicroStrategy 29:27

Largest holder will keep buying Bitcoin.

Strategy remains the world's largest identified holder of Bitcoin and will continue to be the largest buyer for the foreseeable future. The company is not going anywhere and is sticking with Bitcoin for the long term, expecting the next bull market, and has built a capital structure that can withstand bear cycles.

Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst 33:02

Hardware spend crowds out software revenue.

Rising memory prices are forcing companies to pull forward hardware purchases at the expense of software and consulting spending. IBM's warning is a harbinger, and other software vendors will likely report similar pullbacks over the next 30–60 days as customers divert budgets to increasingly expensive servers and storage.

Lori Calvasina Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets 36:08

Upgrade tech to overweight.

RBC upgraded the technology sector to overweight. Their quarterly analyst survey showed strong bullishness among U.S. tech analysts. Semiconductor valuations have improved and froth has been unwound enough to allow the sector to work, while tech valuations overall have moved back to neutral, making it more attractive than communication services.

Lori Calvasina Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets 39:00

Utilities downgraded on extreme valuations.

RBC downgraded utilities to underweight. The sector sits at extreme high valuations on both an absolute and relative basis, similar to previous overvalued groups that the market corrected. Earnings revision momentum is much weaker than in other sectors, and the RBC analyst survey shows only neutral sentiment when most others are positive.

Lori Calvasina Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets 42:09

Consumer discretionary improves, remove underweight.

Consumer discretionary was upgraded from underweight to market weight. The University of Michigan survey improved across all data points, valuation has moved back to neutral, specialty retail shows positive earnings revisions and good valuations, so RBC no longer wants to be underexposed.

Rebecca Babin Senior Energy Trader, CIBC Private Wealth 58:30

Long refined products, short crude oil.

A shortage of global spare refining capacity, U.S. refineries running near 96% utilization, Russia banning diesel exports, and China refusing to buy inflated crude oil are keeping refined product prices high. This shortage will persist for months, while crude oil faces more supply flexibility, so the best trade remains long diesel and gasoline versus short crude oil.

Rebecca Babin Senior Energy Trader, CIBC Private Wealth 58:30

Long refined products, short crude oil.

A shortage of global spare refining capacity, U.S. refineries running near 96% utilization, Russia banning diesel exports, and China refusing to buy inflated crude oil are keeping refined product prices high. This shortage will persist for months, while crude oil faces more supply flexibility, so the best trade remains long diesel and gasoline versus short crude oil.

Erica Najarian UBS Financials Analyst 64:04

Morgan Stanley to deliver strong earnings.

Morgan Stanley is expected to report very strong second-quarter results driven by its historical strength in equities trading, especially in Asia where industry-wide equities revenues surged 70% year-over-year. The firm remains head and shoulders above peers in wealth management and continues to reinvest in AI and new asset flows, maintaining a premium competitive position.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 14, 2026, features Phong Le, Bloomberg Intelligence, Lori Calvasina, Rebecca Babin, Erica Najarian discussing STRC, MSTR, BTC, NOW, WDAY, XLK, XLU, XLY, ULSD, UGA, USO, MS. 10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Phong Le, Bloomberg Intelligence, Lori Calvasina, Rebecca Babin, Erica Najarian · Tickers: STRC, MSTR, BTC, NOW, WDAY, XLK, XLU, XLY, ULSD, UGA, USO, MS