Ideas
Prefer hardware over challenged software complex
He says tech results reinforce a software-versus-hardware split: hardware is performing very well, helped by a memory chip squeeze, while software names like SAP and Microsoft are being questioned on competitive threats, AI ROI, and whether elevated data-center capex can be justified.
Prefer hardware over challenged software complex
He says tech results reinforce a software-versus-hardware split: hardware is performing very well, helped by a memory chip squeeze, while software names like SAP and Microsoft are being questioned on competitive threats, AI ROI, and whether elevated data-center capex can be justified.
Samsung wins from memory chip squeeze
Samsung is coming through with the memory chip squeeze, supporting the hardware outperformance theme.
Microsoft Azure capex justification questionable
Microsoft's Azure business is not yet at a point where investors can justify the capex on data centers and infrastructure; cloud growth slowed and missed estimates, creating question marks.
Meta ad strength allows continued capex
Meta advertising revenues are blowing up on all fronts, and investors are willing to tolerate continued capex because top-line growth is strong; capex could reach around $135 billion in 2026, a roughly 90% increase.
SAP faces competitive and backlog concerns
SAP had a brutal session and the stock was already down about 30%. Investors are questioning how long the cloud subscription transition can continue, backlog came in lower than expected, and AI startups may be taking share, leaving unanswered questions about when AI value will accrue.
Tesla is now AI robotics bet
Tesla is no longer just a car company; it is focused on AI, investing in xAI, and considering building its own foundry to meet chip demand tied to the memory shortage. Investors are relaxed and betting Musk's robotics and AI future will pay off.
Constructive on broad equities as macro supports
She is very constructive on the market. The macroeconomic story still supports equity gains because earnings growth is robust, monetary policy is supportive, and inflation is anchored, providing building blocks for broad-based rallies.
Tech earnings strength beats struggling sectors
She has been constructive on tech for a long time. The reason is not simply AI exposure: earnings growth in tech is strong while many other sectors struggle to grow earnings, so the opportunity is less about broadening and more about owning the winners concentrated in tech.
Dollar concern; hedge US equity exposure
She is concerned about the dollar. A weaker dollar is good for US companies but a headwind for European companies, and more European investors are questioning whether they need to hedge their US equity exposure.
Korea and Taiwan are easy AI trade
The easy trade outside America in tech is Asian tech, with particular interest in Korea and Taiwan. Investors may see it as broadening or diversification, but she views it as the same AI trade implemented slightly differently.
Commodities supported by lasting geopolitical uncertainty
She likes commodity trades because geopolitical uncertainty is unprecedented and hard to imagine going away, which drives demand for commodities. She also notes geopolitical risk is not translating into huge market volatility.
Low volatility supports emerging market trades
Geopolitical uncertainty is not creating huge market volatility; anchored inflation and stabilizing conditions give a bid to risk assets, carry trades, and potentially emerging market trades, which she calls an opening in the market.
European banks face tougher 2026 comparisons
2025 was a banner year for European banks with some share prices doubling, but 2026 will be tough to beat those embedded expectations. Results may still be strong, but he does not expect the same share-price doubling again.
Meta revenue momentum with clean positioning
Meta had impressive revenue momentum, extremely clean positioning into the print, and an incredible first-quarter guide despite elevated capex. Zuckerberg focused on ROI, engagement, and relevancy, giving a clear path for the story now that capex is out of the way.
ASML benefits from AI supply tightness
ASML's revenue was disappointing, but the stock was up and research sounded fantastic. Supply tightness and constraint is the number one issue in AI, which he calls a good problem to have and supportive for ASML.
Microsoft Azure guide disappointingly weak
Microsoft was very disappointing on the Azure guide, and capex is elevated, adding to a negative setup.
Software complex limited by AI overhang
SAP was a disaster, ServiceNow was down 7%-8%, and software is the redheaded stepchild that cannot get out of its own way. The AI overhang will limit upside and excitement for the software complex.
Avoid OpenAI-exposed names like Nvidia Oracle
He is concerned about any names with outsized exposure to Sam Altman/OpenAI. NVIDIA has been dead money for six months and Oracle has been a train wreck as investors worry about OpenAI and its accelerating cash burn.
Semiconductors favored in AI capex cycle
He favors the winning AI hardware lane: semiconductor capex is going higher, sovereigns are getting involved, domestic chip production is a top Trump policy priority, memory and storage have strong tailwinds, and semicaps are agnostic over who wins the AI arms race, with all roads going through Taiwan and semicaps.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 29, 2026,
features Tom Mackenzie, Marija Veitmane, Tom Metcalf, Joel Kulina
discussing SMH, IGV, 005930.KS, MSFT, META, SAP, TSLA, SPY, XLK, USD, Asian Tech, EWY, EWT, DBC, EEM, EUFN, ASML, NOW, NVDA, ORCL.
20 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Tom Mackenzie,
Marija Veitmane,
Tom Metcalf,
Joel Kulina
· Tickers:
SMH,
IGV,
005930.KS,
MSFT,
META,
SAP,
TSLA,
SPY,
XLK,
USD,
Asian Tech,
EWY,
EWT,
DBC,
EEM,
EUFN,
ASML,
NOW,
NVDA,
ORCL
