Bloomberg Surveillance 9/14/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | September 14, 2026 at 15:50 | 2:24:10 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Lori Calvasina — Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets

Gregory Allen — Director, Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, CSIS

Chris Harvey — CIBC

Matthew Hornbach — Global Head of Macro Strategy

Richard Bernstein — CEO and Chief Investment Officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors

Chris Wright — US Energy Secretary

Sarah Kunst — Cleo Capital Founder

David Stubbs — AlphaCore Wealth Advisory

Jonathan Pingle — UBS Investment Bank

Wayne Sanders — Senior Defense Research Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

Jennifer Huddleston — Cato Institute

David Tinsley — Bank of America Institute

Jonathan Ferro — Anchor, Bloomberg Television

Lisa Abramowicz — Anchor, Bloomberg Television and Radio

Summary

The episode centers on a weekend push by AI leaders to pace frontier-model development, which hit chip and megacap tech shares while helping software and some hyperscalers. Oil surged as Middle East supply disruptions and the closure of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline tightened crude and refined-product markets. Investors also focused on an expected Fed rate hike, rising Treasury yields, and whether AI capex can keep supporting U.S. growth.

AI leaders call for pacing frontier model development; chip stocks fall.
Oil and refined product prices rise after pipeline and Red Sea disruptions.
Fed expected to hike rates; 10-year yields near 5%.
Strategists debate equity risk, with some favoring large-cap quality and bonds.
Richard Bernstein says AI is overcapitalized and favors non-U.S. opportunities.
Energy secretary expects oil flows to rise and crude problem to fade.
Sarah Kunst favors Google and Meta amid cheap Chinese AI concerns.
David Stubbs warns 5.5% Treasury yields could challenge the bull market.

Ideas

Lori Calvasina Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets 5:15

Rest of S&P 500 capex early

If investors worry about AI froth in the largest stocks, she says to look at the rest of the S&P 500; the other 490 companies are in early days of a capex and IT upgrade cycle, and AI-related derivative spending may spread to healthcare, insurance and other sectors.

Lori Calvasina Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets 7:30

Longer-term U.S. equities still intact

Near-term she expects a 5%-10% pullback and is haircutting bottom-up S&P 500 EPS by 10% because of AI froth, Iran war risks, inflation and higher rates, but she still thinks the longer-term U.S. equity story is intact; low-2% GDP growth is favorable for stocks and historical data suggests 1-4 Fed hikes over 12 months are usually okay for equities.

Gregory Allen Director, Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, CSIS 39:16

AI data-center capex remains justified

He argues AI data-center capex remains economically justified because the projected return is astronomical, with tokens from a data center worth 20-30x the build cost, and because the U.S. lead over China is too small to afford a prolonged safety-driven slowdown.

Chris Harvey CIBC 54:50

Favor large-cap quality stocks

Within equities, he recommends going up in market capitalization and quality, staying conservative, because the risk backdrop is unfavorable and investors should wait for a better day.

Chris Harvey CIBC 55:27

Credit spreads face issuance pushback

He is worried about corporate credit because spreads are very tight after a strong year of issuance, September issuance is expected to be another record, and buyers may eventually push back, especially if yields rise; he worries more about credit cutting off than the Fed rate hike.

Matthew Hornbach Global Head of Macro Strategy 91:30

Long government bonds offer long-term value

He sees value in long-duration government bonds in the U.S., Japan, Europe and the U.K. for very long-term holders, noting 3% real yields are attractive even though the trade has been a value trap this year due to energy-driven inflation and central-bank response.

Richard Bernstein CEO and Chief Investment Officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors 102:23

Global ex-U.S. growth opportunities are broad

He favors the rest of the global economy because it has been starved of capital while AI/tech absorbed investment; he screened for companies with projected five-year earnings growth of 25% or more and found only about 200, with 75% outside the U.S. and only one Magnificent Seven name passing.

Chris Wright US Energy Secretary 113:50

Refined products remain near-term tight

He says the bigger issue is refined products rather than crude, because Russian diesel exports have been disrupted, Middle East refining is constrained, and gasoline/diesel prices are elevated; he expects U.S. refining and Middle East product flows to improve, but the near-term setup remains tight.

Chris Wright US Energy Secretary 115:19

Crude oil supply problem will fade

He expects oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East to keep rising regardless of Iran's actions, says the East-West pipeline should return soon, and argues the crude-oil problem will fade as production and flows increase.

Sarah Kunst Cleo Capital Founder 132:40

Meta benefits from AI spending restraint

She says Meta is among the quiet hyperscalers and a rotation target; if Meta faces less pressure to spend heavily on AI capex, the Street would like that, making it relatively attractive amid AI spending concerns.

Sarah Kunst Cleo Capital Founder 133:05

Alphabet is AI leader with cash

She says Google/Alphabet has been and will be an AI leader, has the cash to keep investing if other hyperscalers pull back, and is a name investors can rotate into when AI spending concerns hit other hyperscalers.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 14, 2026, features Lori Calvasina, Gregory Allen, Chris Harvey, Matthew Hornbach, Richard Bernstein, Chris Wright, Sarah Kunst discussing RSP, SPY, AI-SECTOR, Large-cap quality equities, LQD, Japanese long-duration government bonds, European long-duration government bonds, TLT, UK long-duration government bonds, ACWX, Diesel and gasoline, WTI, META, GOOG. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Lori Calvasina, Gregory Allen, Chris Harvey, Matthew Hornbach, Richard Bernstein, Chris Wright, Sarah Kunst · Tickers: RSP, SPY, AI-SECTOR, Large-cap quality equities, LQD, Japanese long-duration government bonds, European long-duration government bonds, TLT, UK long-duration government bonds, ACWX, Diesel and gasoline, WTI, META, GOOG