US Stocks Flirt with Record, Bull Run Extends | The Close 1/6/2026
Speakers
Julie Biel
— Portfolio Manager, Kayne Anderson Rudnick
Richard Haass
— President Emeritus, Council on Foreign Relations
David George
— Senior Research Analyst, Baird
David Steinbach
— Hines Global CIO & Managing Partner
Veronica Willis
— Global Investment Strategist, Wells Fargo Investment Institute
Stacy Rasgon
— Senior Analyst, U.S. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, Bernstein Research
Bill Dudley
— Senior Advisor, Bloomberg Economics
Kirk Tanner
— CEO, Hershey
Jensen Huang
— CEO, NVIDIA
Romaine Bostick
— Anchor, Bloomberg
Caroline Hyde
— Co-Anchor, Bloomberg Tech
Carol Massar
— Anchor, Bloomberg
Patrick Duddy
— Visiting Senior Lecturer, Duke University and Former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela
Shaquille O'Neal
— Investor, Strategic Partner, Former NBA All-Star
Summary
The program covers a record-setting start to 2026 for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 and Dow hitting new highs while cyclicals and small caps outperform. Guests debate AI spending, data-center cooling risk, regional bank valuations, private real estate opportunities, and the outlook for Fed policy and Treasury yields. Geopolitical discussions focus on Venezuela's oil industry and U.S. foreign policy, while Hershey's CEO and Shaquille O'Neal discuss candy innovation and brand expansion.
- U.S. stocks rose with the S&P 500 and Dow at records; energy lagged while cyclicals and small caps outperformed.
- Julie Biel prefers high-quality AI beneficiaries Google and Meta and warns on data-center cooling stocks.
- David George recommends selling Wells Fargo on valuation and favors regional banks over money centers.
- David Steinbach sees firmer private real estate, with U.S. housing as top conviction and opportunities in data-center land/power and reshoring.
- Veronica Willis favors U.S. equities, large/mid caps over small caps, and industrials/utilities as AI infrastructure plays.
- Stacy Rasgon is positive on NVIDIA, sees AMD needing broader demand, and Bill Dudley warns Fed independence risk could steepen the curve.
- Venezuela regime change and oil outlook are debated, with experts skeptical of a near-term oil production game changer.
- Hershey CEO Kirk Tanner and Shaquille O'Neal discuss new gummy products and growth beyond chocolate.
Ideas
High-quality AI beneficiaries Google and Meta.
She is confident in Google and Meta because AI is going to prove out their core businesses; these are high-quality mega-cap platforms where AI supports the franchise. She contrasts them with lower-quality AI adjacent picks-and-shovels plays where assumptions about compute/cooling demand and earnings impact are not clear, so she prefers owning the high-quality AI beneficiaries.
Data center cooling stocks risky.
Data center cooling is an adjacent AI picks-and-shovels area where investors are making assumptions about AI buildout velocity, compute/cooling demand, and earnings impact that are not clear. Trying to play these adjacent plays in companies not as high quality as Google is risky; better to focus on fundamentals and treat AI as a sweetener, not depend on everything in AI working out.
Profitable small caps via S&P 600.
Small-cap is a good place for diversification versus Mag 7 exposure, but it is economically sensitive, so she recommends owning profitable small-cap businesses. She notes the Russell 2000 includes all small-caps and did better last year, while the S&P 600 has profitable companies; that profitability focus is important. Health care is an example of a small-cap pocket with good earnings.
Venezuela oil optimism overdone; bearish crude.
Most Venezuela oil optimism is overdone. Venezuela's heavy oil and dilapidated infrastructure mean production cannot quickly return to peak; oil is already at $60 and the market is not desperate for more barrels. Any gradual output increase from about 1 million bpd to 1.5-2 million bpd would add further downward pressure on prices rather than being a game changer.
Sell Wells Fargo on valuation.
Wells Fargo is in good fundamental shape, but the stock is too pricey after a great run; it has never been more expensive in Baird's 25 years of coverage at over 14x forward earnings. With high expectations into earnings, risk-reward is asymmetric and they advocate selling/taking profits.
Buy Fifth Third on Comerica deal.
Fifth Third is a favorite regional bank; it is buying Comerica and Baird is very constructive on the transaction, so they are buyers of Fifth Third.
Huntington favored regional bank.
Huntington is one of Baird's liked regional banks in the favorable regional-bank valuation setup.
PNC cheap versus money centers.
PNC is a favored regional bank that can be bought at 9-10x earnings, much cheaper than money-center peers like JPMorgan at 15x, as part of the regional-bank valuation dispersion trade.
Zions rebound after fraud blip.
Baird upgraded Zions in October after the stock fell 18% on a near-term fraud blip; it has rebounded nicely, and they continue to like the regional bank as part of the cheap regional-bank group.
Regionals over money-center banks.
Baird is tilting toward regional banks over money centers because valuation dispersion is historically wide. Investors can buy regionals like Zions or PNC at 9-11x earnings versus JPMorgan at 15x and Wells Fargo at 14x. Money center business models are good, but the disconnect is too large; regionals offer better risk-reward.
Regionals over money-center banks.
Baird is tilting toward regional banks over money centers because valuation dispersion is historically wide. Investors can buy regionals like Zions or PNC at 9-11x earnings versus JPMorgan at 15x and Wells Fargo at 14x. Money center business models are good, but the disconnect is too large; regionals offer better risk-reward.
Private real estate poised to ascend.
After a tough reset in private real estate from higher rates starting in 2022, footing feels much firmer. Rates have come down, new supply has been cut off for years, obsolescence and economic growth will drive rent growth, and development economics have not justified new supply. Real estate is a good opportunity into its next ascent.
U.S. housing supply shortage.
The U.S. is about 200,000 houses short; while there are pockets of oversupply, the country is undersupplied and new supply needs to come. This is Hines' number one conviction in living space.
Office credit opportunity now.
Global office is not uniform, but in the U.S., New York is leading the recovery in fundamentals. The lending side has improved as private credit has deepened and can refinance the best projects or bring capital to projects that need it. That is a leading indicator for an eventual office equity opportunity, but currently the opportunity is more on the credit side.
Office equity opportunity emerging.
New York office fundamentals are leading a recovery, and improving private credit/refinancing conditions are a leading indicator for an eventual office equity opportunity. However, the equity opportunity is still emerging, and Hines is more active on the credit side now.
Reshoring boosts industrial real estate.
Reshoring and nearshoring are a global multi-year phenomenon; companies are rethinking supply chains and will require a lot of building. Existing well-located projects are increasingly scarce, development premiums are hard to find, and reshoring will increase demand and rent growth.
Data center land and power.
Hines has been involved in data centers for 30 years, but customers have shifted from banks to hyperscalers. They are focused on the entire value chain, especially securing land and power, where they still see opportunities even as the pace slows; core demand is strong despite some pullback.
U.S. equities lead international.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute thinks equities have room to run, though not another double-digit year. Earnings and a good 2026 economy support gains, and Q4 data may be better than expected. They favor the U.S. over international because the U.S. economy is leading the global economy and should help U.S. equities regain leadership.
U.S. equities lead international.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute thinks equities have room to run, though not another double-digit year. Earnings and a good 2026 economy support gains, and Q4 data may be better than expected. They favor the U.S. over international because the U.S. economy is leading the global economy and should help U.S. equities regain leadership.
Large and mid over small.
With a volatile year expected, they favor quality and size: large-cap over small-cap and mid-cap over small-cap. Larger companies have more cash and can be more nimble in uncertain times, though small caps are not expected to have a terrible year.
Large and mid over small.
With a volatile year expected, they favor quality and size: large-cap over small-cap and mid-cap over small-cap. Larger companies have more cash and can be more nimble in uncertain times, though small caps are not expected to have a terrible year.
Industrials and utilities power AI.
It is smart to play the AI trade outside major tech names. Industrials and utilities are favored because they will be big players in data centers and the infrastructure needed to fuel AI, providing diversification while still playing the AI story. Focus on sector-level exposure rather than picking specific names.
Intermediate Treasuries offer less risk.
The long end of the curve is focused on economic growth rather than Fed actions, so they like the intermediate portion of the curve because there is less risk from long-end economic data and less risk around whether the Fed cuts more or less than expected.
Hershey sustainable long-term growth.
Hershey is a sustainable, long-term growth company with a robust portfolio, pipeline innovation, and executional excellence with retail partners. It is expanding beyond chocolate into gummies, salty snacks, and protein, is managing GLP-1 risk through portion control and permissible categories, and the confection category has been resilient. The combination should allow it to out-market and out-execute competition.
MSCI exclusion risk removed for MicroStrategy.
MSCI has determined it will not exclude digital asset treasury companies like MicroStrategy from its indices on a blanket basis, removing a key risk overhang that had pressured the shares. Romaine says this could be a big boom for MicroStrategy and others.
AI growth requires more energy.
AI factories are limited by power; for a new industry to emerge, you need energy. He says the U.S., Europe, and the world wish they had more energy, so society must invest in all different forms of energy to support AI and broader growth.
Stacy Rasgon
Senior Analyst, U.S. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, Bernstein Research
72:14
NVIDIA Rubin ramp looks real.
Jensen Huang's CES comments were not just hype; the Rubin specifications versus Blackwell look like a monster and the company said Rubin is in full production, putting the second half on track. The memory bottleneck is severe and NVIDIA works with all three suppliers. China H200 sales should resume and demand is there; allowing NVIDIA to compete in China helps prevent local alternatives from coalescing. This should be a pretty good year.
Stacy Rasgon
Senior Analyst, U.S. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, Bernstein Research
77:00
AMD needs demand beyond OpenAI.
AMD has built something impressive and is shipping single-digit billions where it had zero a couple years ago. The OpenAI business could make AMD more material, but the company is more dependent on OpenAI than peers, and NVIDIA's Rubin looks like a beast that will be tough to compete with. He wants to see AMD's demand pattern broaden; if it does $25-30B, that might be enough.
Fed independence risk steepens curve.
Fed independence is the top risk. If the Fed is perceived as losing independence, markets will worry inflation gets out of hand. If the Fed does what President Trump wants, the outcome would be higher inflation, higher inflation expectations, a steeper curve, higher bond yields, and more market stress. The incoming chair will have a difficult line to walk.
Fed independence risk steepens curve.
Fed independence is the top risk. If the Fed is perceived as losing independence, markets will worry inflation gets out of hand. If the Fed does what President Trump wants, the outcome would be higher inflation, higher inflation expectations, a steeper curve, higher bond yields, and more market stress. The incoming chair will have a difficult line to walk.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 06, 2026, features Julie Biel, Richard Haass, David George, David Steinbach, Veronica Willis, Kirk Tanner, Romaine Bostick, Jensen Huang, Stacy Rasgon, Bill Dudley discussing GOOG, META, Data center cooling stocks, IJR, WTI, WFC, FITB, HII, PNC, ZION, KRE, JPM, Private real estate, ITB, Office real estate credit, Office real estate equity, INDS, Data center land and power, ACWX, SPY, IJH, XLI, UTILITIES, IEI, HSY, MSTR, XLE, NVDA, AMD, U.S. Treasury curve steepener, Long-end Treasuries. 30 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Julie Biel, Richard Haass, David George, David Steinbach, Veronica Willis, Kirk Tanner, Romaine Bostick, Jensen Huang, Stacy Rasgon, Bill Dudley · Tickers: GOOG, META, Data center cooling stocks, IJR, WTI, WFC, FITB, HII, PNC, ZION, KRE, JPM, Private real estate, ITB, Office real estate credit, Office real estate equity, INDS, Data center land and power, ACWX, SPY, IJH, XLI, UTILITIES, IEI, HSY, MSTR, XLE, NVDA, AMD, U.S. Treasury curve steepener, Long-end Treasuries