Ideas
Short Nvidia on any bounce
NVDA is the most expensive mega-cap stock in history and its revenue growth was already set to decelerate, so he expects rate-of-change slowdown and multiple compression; DeepSeek's low-cost, efficient AI model is a major competitive threat because it reduces the need for the most expensive Nvidia GPUs. The stock broke his intermediate trend signal at $134 and his analyst downgraded it, so he would short any bounce.
Watch VIX mid-20s for stress
The selloff currently looks like a healthy rotation out of expensive Nvidia/semiconductor exposure into lagging sectors, but if the VIX breaks into the mid-20s, he would view it as a broader market concern rather than healthy rotation.
Avoid China; growth remains broken
China is in Quad 4 with weak PMIs, including services contraction and manufacturing sub-50, demographic problems, and stimulus that has failed to revive growth, so he would avoid buying Chinese assets and prefers U.S. growth opportunities.
Long financials, industrials in Quad 2
In a Quad 2 regime with accelerating U.S. growth and inflation, cyclical sector exposures such as financials and industrials should do well and are attractive on sale; he also notes financials have many growth stocks working well.
Short Treasuries; 10-year yield to 5%
Inflation bottomed in September and has reaccelerated, U.S. growth is stronger than expected, and the Fed has removed most rate cuts; the bond market has been a great short, and he expects the 10-year Treasury yield to run back toward 4.9%-5%.
Long growth and momentum via SPMO
He is very bullish on growth and momentum factor exposure, especially in Quad 2; the DeepSeek-driven selloff creates opportunities in growth-related names, and SPMO is an explicit expression of that factor view.
Long space ETF UFO
Space is a growth category/Trump trade that not everyone has thought through; he is long the UFO ETF, and holdings such as Rocket Labs are ripping as the rally broadens into speculative growth.
Long quantum computing growth theme
He is long quantum computing as another underappreciated growth theme in Quad 2; Rigetti Computing, the largest name in the quantum ETF, is ripping as part of the broadening growth rally.
Long consumer discretionary via XLY
He is long growth wherever he can find it, including consumer discretionary via XLY, which includes Amazon; the broadening rally and resilient U.S. consumer/small-business optimism support discretionary over staples.
Long U.S. small and midcaps
The rally is broadening into small and midcaps, with midcaps liked a bit more right now; small caps have a bull case from vertical NFIB small-business optimism, less regulation/tax risk, and their role as most U.S. businesses and roughly half of hiring.
Long commodities, energy, oil, natural gas
Commodities and energy equities are key Quad 2 longs; he remains bullish on oil and natural gas and related equities, and argues energy stocks look cheaper using his WTI assumption near $79-$80 per barrel.
Short consumer staples versus discretionary
He is short staples and long discretionary because U.S. small-business optimism and a less regulated/lower-tax environment should support the consumer, while staples face weak relative appeal and potential RFK-driven scrutiny of packaged-food and consumer-staples companies.
Short housing and REITs
Immigration policy changes reduce a major source of housing demand, and higher interest rates are another headwind; therefore he is short housing via ITB and short REITs.
Short healthcare on policy scrutiny
He sees plenty of opportunities on the short side of healthcare around the changing Trump/RFK policy backdrop and disclosure agenda.
Long yield steepener via IVOL
He is long a yield-curve steepener via IVOL; the 10s-2s curve has finally gone positive and he expects further steepening toward +50 to +75 basis points, which is the best environment in Quad 2.
Long high yield credit
In Quad 2 with a steepening curve and credit spreads tightening toward the tights, high-yield credit is in its best environment and he is long high yield.
Long dollar on U.S. strength
He is long the dollar because U.S. economic growth remains strong, inflation keeps the Fed out of rate-cut mode, and the broader failure of global fiat currencies favors the dollar along with gold and Bitcoin.
Long Bitcoin as fiat alternative
Bitcoin is a beneficiary of the global fiat-currency crisis and ongoing diversification away from abused local currencies; while he is not a Bitcoin maxi and does not think it replaces gold, he sees it as an alternative store of value whose time to shine has arrived.
Long Argentina, short Brazil
He is long Argentina via ARGT and short Brazil; Milei's aggressive spending cuts and reforms are phenomenal, while Lula is running Brazil into the ground, making it a relative long/short country pair.
Long Argentina, short Brazil
He is long Argentina via ARGT and short Brazil; Milei's aggressive spending cuts and reforms are phenomenal, while Lula is running Brazil into the ground, making it a relative long/short country pair.
Long gold on central-bank buying
Gold is a store of value and money alongside the dollar and Bitcoin; central banks are accumulating gold and prefer it to U.S. Treasuries, providing natural incremental demand, though he would be careful if the 10-year yield breaks above 5%.
This The David Lin Report video, published January 27, 2025,
features Keith McCullough
discussing NVDA, VIX, FXI, XLF, XLI, TLT, SPMO, UFO, QUBT, XLY, IWM, DBC, XLE, WTI, UNG, XLP, ITB, XLRE, XLV, IVOL, HYG, DXY, BTC, ARGT, EWZ, GLD.
21 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Keith McCullough
· Tickers:
NVDA,
VIX,
FXI,
XLF,
XLI,
TLT,
SPMO,
UFO,
QUBT,
XLY,
IWM,
DBC,
XLE,
WTI,
UNG,
XLP,
ITB,
XLRE,
XLV,
IVOL,
HYG,
DXY,
BTC,
ARGT,
EWZ,
GLD
