Trump ‘Not Happy’ On Iran | Balance of Power: Early Edition 2/27/2026
Speakers
Christina Ruffini — Anchor, Bloomberg
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- Geopolitical tensions are spiking as President Trump expresses dissatisfaction with Iran negotiations, putting military strikes back on the table. This has pushed oil prices higher (WTI/Brent up ~2%) and Gold up 1%, while equities sell off.
- A significant rotation is occurring in the equity markets, dubbed the "HALO" trade (Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence). Investors are fleeing software and SaaS companies due to AI disruption fears and moving into Energy and Utilities.
- The media landscape is shifting with Netflix dropping its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, clearing the path for a Paramount-Skydance merger.
- Private Credit is showing cracks ("cockroaches"), specifically due to heavy exposure to software companies that are underperforming; BlackRock's private debt fund cut its dividend, and firms like Apollo and KKR are being watched closely.
Trade Ideas
Amidst the market selloff (Dow down 1.3%), Gold is up $50 (1%) and Silver is surging 6%. The combination of geopolitical fear (Iran) and market instability (tech selloff) is driving a classic flight to safety. Silver's outperformance suggests a high-beta catch-up trade is active. LONG precious metals as a hedge against geopolitical volatility and equity drawdowns. De-escalation in the Middle East or a sudden spike in real yields.
Netflix officially dropped out of the fight to buy Warner Bros. Discovery. This clears the way for Paramount-Skydance to clinch a $111 billion deal. The removal of the bid overhang caused NFLX to surge 11.9% (relief rally). PARA surged 24.1% on deal certainty. WBD fell 2.2% as the bidding war premium evaporated. LONG NFLX (momentum/relief) and PARA (deal arbitrage). SHORT/AVOID WBD (loss of acquisition premium). Regulatory hurdles for the Paramount-Skydance deal.
The market is shifting from "Nvidia leading" to pessimism on software. Investors are moving to "HALO stocks" (Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence) like Energy and Utilities. The market fears AI will replace "software as a service" revenue streams (coding/automation). Capital is rotating out of intangible tech (Software) into physical infrastructure (Energy/Utilities) that powers AI but cannot be replaced by it. SHORT Software/SaaS. LONG Energy and Utilities. AI adoption slows down, or software companies successfully integrate AI to boost margins rather than being replaced.
President Trump is "not happy" with Iran negotiations and strikes are considered. Richard Haass notes that if Iran retaliates by making the Strait of Hormuz unsafe, we could see "well over $100 a barrel." Exxon (XOM) hit another all-time high today. Geopolitical escalation directly threatens supply chains in the Middle East. The "war premium" is returning to energy markets. Additionally, the "HALO" rotation favors energy as a hard asset immune to AI obsolescence. LONG oil futures and major producers like Exxon. A diplomatic breakthrough or a "rope a dope" strategy where no actual military action occurs.
There are "concerns about private credit troubles." BlackRock's private debt fund cut its dividend. Private credit firms (Apollo, KKR) are heavily invested in the very software companies that are currently getting hammered. This is a second-order effect of the AI/Software crash. If software valuations collapse, the private credit loans backing them become distressed. The speaker explicitly refers to "cockroaches" starting to scurry in this space. AVOID Private Credit managers with high tech/software exposure. The software sector stabilizes, or these firms have sufficient covenants to protect capital.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 27, 2026, features Charlie Pellett, Richard Haass discussing GOLD, SILVER, PARA, NFLX, WBD, XLE, IGV, XOM, WTI, KKR, BLK, APO. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Charlie Pellett, Richard Haass · Tickers: GOLD, SILVER, PARA, NFLX, WBD, XLE, IGV, XOM, WTI, KKR, BLK, APO