Ideas
European military investment to rise.
Rishi Sunak argued at Davos that hard power matters more than soft power, and Lisa sees that leading to additional investments in military equipment across Europe and beyond.
Gold and precious metals favored.
Precious metals and gold are the place to be now; central banks, institutional investors and retail investors have been continuously pouring in, and Goldman's upgraded forecast to roughly $5,600 reflects competition for limited supply.
Private markets and secondaries attractive.
The secondaries market is one of the fastest-growing private-market segments due to lack of distributions, convergence of private and public markets, and portfolio rebalancing needs; private equity remains a long-term growth market with attractive ownership and uncorrelated value creation, and geopolitical uncertainty should accelerate consolidation.
U.S. remains core allocation.
EQT remains positive on the U.S.; while geopolitical uncertainty is driving investors to diversify, the U.S. offers economic growth and innovation and should remain an important part of any public or private market portfolio.
AI infrastructure demand exceeds capacity.
AI is one of the most attractive themes of this generation; despite talk of overcapacity and excessive valuations, EQT sees power and energy constraints and data-center demand for AI compute vastly exceeding available capacity.
Banking M&A cycle is robust.
The Trump administration encourages bank mergers whereas the prior administration blocked them, regulation is lighter, banking fundamentals are strong, and scale is increasingly necessary, creating a robust M&A environment.
Private equity exits accelerating.
The private equity exit market is back: 2025 was the second-highest exit year with $1.3 trillion returned, 80% of the 2021 peak, LPs are getting liquidity, and 2026 should surpass 2021.
AI, energy, quantum drive growth.
This tech cycle is more sustainable than 1999 because AI leaders are well-capitalized and spending is existential; AI and the energy needed to supply it are key growth drivers, while quantum computing is a hidden driver over the next three to five years.
Argentine spreads too wide.
Argentina has zero fiscal deficit, pays interest from surplus, has a low debt-to-GDP ratio, and is building its domestic capital market; a 550bp funding spread is not consistent with those fundamentals, implying less need for foreign capital and a stronger sovereign credit.
Chevron early in Venezuela.
Venezuela is opening to oil investment, and incumbent players like Chevron are ready to invest and should be early beneficiaries as production increases before smaller wildcatters.
Underweight U.S. dollar and Treasuries.
Ontario Teachers' cut its U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury exposure because it thought it was overexposed and saw more risk of a deflationary dollar; the U.S. remains 30%-35% of the portfolio but those exposures were reduced and kept lower.
Credit card issuers face pressure.
A 10% credit card interest cap would pressure credit card issuers' profits and make them more challenged than before the proposal; GoldenTree is watching financials and credit cards as the policy plays out.
Housing suppliers set to benefit.
Affordability and housing will be a bipartisan policy focus, and suppliers to housing should benefit from policy efforts and a relatively low base; GoldenTree is focusing on housing.
Buy now, pay later unattractive.
Buy now, pay later lenders charge double or triple a 10% cap and target subprime borrowers; if a cap is imposed, negative selection and execution risk make them unappealing.
High yield is unattractive.
With tight valuations and growth above 2%, fixed income is a bad neighborhood, especially high yield below investment grade, where investors usually do not earn their coupon.
MGM and Comcast equity favored.
Some equities are more interesting than their debt: MGM's debt markets would finance the entire market cap, and Comcast trades around 5x EBIT with a reasonable credit profile and equal debt/equity split, so equity should do better than debt.
DIP distressed opportunity after selloff.
The debtor-in-possession financing market sold off significantly after First Brands' fraud showed DIP can lose 80% of value, creating an interesting distressed opportunity similar to the European bank junior debt selloff after Credit Suisse.
AI infrastructure buildout underfunded.
AI is transformational and must be financed; historical technology transitions required 2%-5% of GDP investment while only about 1% has been put into the ground so far, implying a large multi-year AI infrastructure buildout.
Enterprise AI adoption to steepen.
Enterprise AI adoption is where value will diffuse; integration takes time due security, resiliency and change management, but early users are showing 2.8x returns, so the J-curve should steepen quickly.
U.S. equity flows stay strong.
Flows follow returns; foreign investors increased U.S. equity flows by $3 trillion over the past year, and the U.S. remains the deepest and most liquid market with the best analysts and investors, so diversification talk has not fundamentally shifted U.S. leadership.
Tariffs support GM and Ford.
Auto tariffs and reshoring policy are supporting U.S. automakers and union labor; GM and Ford shares rose after the tariffs, with GM up 60%, arguing for continued benefit from protection and reshoring.
Micron expands U.S. manufacturing.
Micron committed $200 billion to America and broke ground on a mega fab in upstate New York/Syracuse, supported by local power infrastructure and creating a significant industrial uplift that reinforces U.S. semiconductor manufacturing.
Investment banking pipelines brightening.
Investment banking activity is strong with the second-best fee year on record, pipelines are brightening into IPOs and deal flow, and approval times are falling, creating a better capital-markets environment.
Enterprise software oversold.
Enterprise software is extremely out of favor, with important companies down 30% year-over-year and free-cash-flow multiples compressed; AI should disrupt less than half of software companies, and domain expertise makes many enterprise software firms resilient.
U.S. allocations remain intact.
Large institutional partners remain steady in the U.S. and their U.S. allocations are intact because it is hard to find the same scale and size of deals elsewhere, despite geopolitical volatility.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 22, 2026,
features Lisa Abramowicz, Annmarie Hordern, Per Franzen, Ron Kruszewski, Steve Pagliuca, Javier Milei, Chris Wright, Jo Taylor, Steven Tananbaum, Adena Friedman, Howard Lutnick, Brian Moynihan, Orlando Bravo
discussing European Defense, GLD, GLTR, PSP, United States (economy), AIQ, DTCR, XLE, BANK, AI-SECTOR, QUBT, Argentina sovereign debt, CVX, UUP, TLT, Credit card issuers, XHB, Buy now, pay later, HYG, MGM, CMCSA, Distressed debt, Debtor-in-possession financing, Enterprise AI, SPY, GM, F, MU, IGV.
25 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Lisa Abramowicz,
Annmarie Hordern,
Per Franzen,
Ron Kruszewski,
Steve Pagliuca,
Javier Milei,
Chris Wright,
Jo Taylor,
Steven Tananbaum,
Adena Friedman,
Howard Lutnick,
Brian Moynihan,
Orlando Bravo
· Tickers:
European Defense,
GLD,
GLTR,
PSP,
United States (economy),
AIQ,
DTCR,
XLE,
BANK,
AI-SECTOR,
QUBT,
Argentina sovereign debt,
CVX,
UUP,
TLT,
Credit card issuers,
XHB,
Buy now, pay later,
HYG,
MGM,
CMCSA,
Distressed debt,
Debtor-in-possession financing,
Enterprise AI,
SPY,
GM,
F,
MU,
IGV
