CoinDesk Live at Consensus Hong Kong 2026 | Day 1
Speakers
**Anthony Scaramucci** — Founder, SkyBridge Capital
— SkyBridge Capital founder
Summary
- Market Sentiment Split: There is a sharp divergence between short-term price action and long-term infrastructure build. While prices are suppressed (Bitcoin under $70k in this 2026 scenario), institutional adoption via ETFs and tokenization is accelerating.
- The "Clarity Act": Multiple speakers anticipate major US legislation (The Clarity Act) passing before Memorial Day 2026, which will force banks to adapt or lose market share to crypto-native firms.
- The "DAT" Thesis: A new asset class dubbed "Digital Asset Treasuries" (DATs) is emerging, where companies holding vast crypto reserves (like MicroStrategy) outperform the underlying Layer 1 tokens by generating yield and utilizing leverage.
- Bear Market Prediction: Markus Thielen (10X Research) provides a contrarian bearish view, predicting Bitcoin could drop to $40k-$50k due to liquidity gaps and ETF investors being underwater, while Scaramucci argues the bear market is 2/3 over.
- Agentic Web: A major theme is "Agentic AI"—AI agents holding wallets and transacting autonomously. This shifts the focus from human interfaces to machine-to-machine economy rails (Solana, Base, Coinbase's X42).
Trade Ideas
Stellar has seen 80% growth in tokenized treasuries, exceeding $7.4B on-chain. Franklin Templeton is a major partner using the network for its fund. Institutional grade uptime (4-5 nines) and specific focus on asset issuance make Stellar a quiet winner in the RWA (Real World Asset) race, specifically for "vanilla" assets like Treasuries that require strict compliance. LONG XLM as a pure-play bet on institutional treasury tokenization. Competition from Ethereum L2s or private bank chains.
Coinbase is launching "X42," an agentic payment protocol to allow AI agents to transact. Robinhood has launched the "Robinhood Chain" public testnet focusing on financial asset trading and acquired Bitstamp for Asian expansion. As regulation (The Clarity Act) passes, compliant US-based platforms with deep liquidity and new tech stacks (Agentic AI payments, L2 chains) will capture the majority of institutional and retail flow, displacing unregulated offshore entities. LONG COIN and HOOD as the primary beneficiaries of US regulatory clarity and the "Agentic Web." The "Clarity Act" could be delayed or watered down by the banking lobby.
The speaker highlights that "DATs" (Digital Asset Treasuries) like MicroStrategy (implied) and "Bitmine" (fictional proxy) trade at massive premiums to their underlying assets because they generate yield and use leverage, unlike the passive asset itself. Investors prefer an actively managed corporate structure that can issue debt to buy more assets (accretive strategy) over a passive ETF that charges fees. This structural advantage allows the stock to outperform the commodity. LONG MSTR as the dominant "Digital Asset Treasury." If the premium to NAV (Net Asset Value) collapses or if the company cannot service its debt during a prolonged bear market.
Big Tech (OpenAI/Google) is building moats around centralized LLMs. SingularityNET and the ASI Alliance are building decentralized AGI stacks that utilize crypto-mining compute power. To prevent AI from being controlled solely by mega-corporations, a decentralized alternative is required. The ASI Alliance (merger of Fetch.ai, SingularityNET, Ocean) provides the tokenomic incentive to pool decentralized compute for AGI. LONG FET (Artificial Superintelligence Alliance) as the index play for decentralized AI. Open-source models from Meta/China might outpace decentralized crypto-AI without needing a token.
Coinbase is listing Sui ecosystem tokens. Sui offers "T+0" settlement (instant) compared to TradFi's T+1, enabling immediate collateralization of assets. Finance requires speed and instant finality to be capital efficient. Sui's architecture is specifically designed to eliminate the "fragmentation" that slows down other chains, making it attractive for high-frequency TradFi integration. LONG SUI as a high-performance financial layer. Failure to attract sufficient liquidity compared to the entrenched EVM (Ethereum) ecosystem.
Scaramucci states Solana is "anti-fragile" and proved its durability by handling massive throughput during the "Trump coin" meme mania without crashing. Lou Yin emphasizes Solana as "Internet Capital Markets" for Wall Street products. If a network can handle the extreme stress of meme coin volatility (high frequency, low value), it has the technical overhead to handle high-value, high-speed institutional finance (RWA) cheaper and faster than competitors. LONG SOL as the infrastructure rail for both "degen" activity and Wall Street tokenization. Network outages or another FTX-style contagion event (though Scaramucci argues it has already survived this).
Thielen notes that ETFs bought $54B of Bitcoin at an average price of $90k, meaning they are currently underwater by ~$10B. He identifies a "liquidity trap" at $87k and notes a lack of buying support. When institutional ETF holders are underwater and hedge funds face redemptions (lagged effect from Q4), selling pressure intensifies. Without a liquidity floor, the price naturally seeks the next major support level. SHORT/AVOID until the price resets to the $40,000–$50,000 range. The Federal Reserve (specifically Kevin Warsh) could pivot to a dovish stance unexpectedly, triggering a rally.
Memecoins are evolving into "culture assets" with actual products. Bonk is building trading bots and DeFi tools, moving beyond just a joke token. "Memes" are the most efficient way to onboard retail. When a meme token pivots to building utility (infrastructure/products) while retaining its viral community, it becomes a "crypto startup" with a massive distribution advantage. LONG BONK as a "utility meme" play. Retail fatigue or a shift in narrative back to "serious" coins.
Consensys (MetaMask) is partnering with Ondo Finance to provide access to tokenized securities. Lubin states TradFi and DeFi are merging, and banks are choosing Ethereum L2s (like Linea) for private/permissioned settlement. As banks move from "private blockchains" to public mainnet via L2s, the assets they tokenize (Treasuries, Equities) will flow through protocols like Ondo. Ethereum remains the settlement layer of choice for high-value trust. LONG ONDO (as the RWA leader) and ETH (as the settlement layer). Banks might successfully lobby to keep stablecoin yield for themselves, stifling DeFi growth.
Up Next
This CoinDesk video, published February 11, 2026, features Raja Chakravorti, John D'Agostino, Tom Lee, Ben Goertzel, Evan Cheng, Anthony Scaramucci, Marcus Thielen, Ray Chan, Joe Lubin discussing XLM, COIN, HOOD, MSTR, FET, SUI, SOL, BTC, BONK, ONDO, ETH. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Raja Chakravorti, John D'Agostino, Tom Lee, Ben Goertzel, Evan Cheng, Anthony Scaramucci, Marcus Thielen, Ray Chan, Joe Lubin · Tickers: XLM, COIN, HOOD, MSTR, FET, SUI, SOL, BTC, BONK, ONDO, ETH