Raja Chakravorti 2.0 9 ideas

A prominent Indian billionaire warns that the stock market boom has only benefited the top 5-7% of the elite, leaving the broader consumption base weak. The "wealth effect" is not trickling down to the mass economy. If consumption (a key driver of India's GDP) stalls due to inequality, corporate earnings cannot justify the currently expensive valuations. AVOID broad Indian equities until valuations reset or consumption broadens. Government stimulus or structural reforms successfully reignite mass consumption.

Raja highlights Franklin Templeton as a "great example of a partner" that has successfully built and scaled on the Stellar network with "almost a billion dollars worth of tokenized treasuries." Franklin Templeton (BEN) has first-mover advantage in the tokenized treasury space. With the sector expected to grow from $7.4 billion to $20 billion+ in the next year, BEN is positioned to capture significant inflows as the dominant incumbent in this specific niche. Long BEN as the leader in traditional asset management successfully transitioning products on-chain. Traditional finance competitors launching rival tokenized funds or regulatory hurdles for on-chain securities.

Raja states the Stellar network offers "institutional grade" capabilities with 4-5 nines of uptime, sub-second finality, and transaction costs of ~0.5 cents. He notes Franklin Templeton has already scaled ~$1 billion on the network. As APAC institutions with $10 trillion in assets move to tokenize complex products (CLOs, Real Estate) to save costs and increase speed (T+2 to T+5 seconds), they require a proven, low-cost network. Stellar is explicitly named as the infrastructure partner for Market Node and the existing rail for major players like Franklin Templeton. Long XLM as the infrastructure layer facilitating the institutional migration of assets on-chain in APAC. Regulatory crackdowns in APAC or competition from other institutional-focused L1 blockchains.

Indian software giants (Infosys, TCS, Wipro) are down significantly (Infosys ADRs down ~9%) due to fears that AI tools like Anthropic will disrupt their business models. Investors are re-rating valuations based on the fear that AI coding agents will decimate the "body-shop" model of legacy IT services. Analysts are downgrading revenue growth forecasts to low single digits. AVOID Indian IT until the disruption impact is quantified. Oversold conditions could lead to a technical bounce; companies may successfully integrate AI to improve their own margins.

Foreign investor GQG is betting $24 billion on India, specifically targeting banking, infrastructure, and telecom, while avoiding IT. These sectors are "domestically oriented" and insulated from the global AI disruption narrative affecting IT exports. They benefit from India's internal economic recovery and earnings growth. LONG India's domestic cyclical economy. Global risk-off sentiment dragging down all emerging market equities.

Franklin Templeton has tokenized nearly $1B of Treasuries on Stellar. Hex Trust sees 2026 as the year DTCC tokenizes "hundreds of billions." The "pilot phase" is over. Major financial plumbing (DTCC) and asset managers are moving from proof-of-concept to commercial scale on specific chains (Stellar mentioned explicitly for Treasuries). LONG. Stellar is a specific beneficiary of the regulated RWA thesis. Banks building private blockchains instead of using public networks like Stellar.

Stellar has seen 80% growth in tokenized treasuries, exceeding $7.4B on-chain. Franklin Templeton is a major partner using the network for its fund. Institutional grade uptime (4-5 nines) and specific focus on asset issuance make Stellar a quiet winner in the RWA (Real World Asset) race, specifically for "vanilla" assets like Treasuries that require strict compliance. LONG XLM as a pure-play bet on institutional treasury tokenization. Competition from Ethereum L2s or private bank chains.