Calls
7
#1697
Alpha Score 7.1
Marcus Thielen
Founder & CEO, 10X Research
Win Rate
14.3%
return
-15.9%
Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Short
Jul 02
$66.92
-24.2%
Hyperliquid (HYPE) is overvalued at $72 based on quantitative modeling of trading volumes and buybacks. Volumes have not increased, buybacks are weak, and exchange tokens are unattractive in a low-volume environment. The token is unlikely to reach $100 and should trade lower.
Crypto Assets
Short
Jul 02
$1703.67
-43.2%
Ethereum is fundamentally bearish because onchain activity does not accrue value to ETH holders, staking yields are unattractive relative to Treasuries, and there is no meaningful buying interest. The price should trade lower.
Crypto Assets
Short
Feb 11
$67082.52
-14.2%
Thielen notes that ETFs bought $54B of Bitcoin at an average price of $90k, meaning they are currently underwater by ~$10B. He identifies a "liquidity trap" at $87k and notes a lack of buying support. When institutional ETF holders are underwater and hedge funds face redemptions (lagged effect from Q4), selling pressure intensifies. Without a liquidity floor, the price naturally seeks the next major support level. SHORT/AVOID until the price resets to the $40,000–$50,000 range. The Federal Reserve (specifically Kevin Warsh) could pivot to a dovish stance unexpectedly, triggering a rally.
Thielen notes that ETFs bought $54B of Bitcoin at an average price of $90k, meaning they are currently underwater by ~$10B. He identifies a "liquidity trap" at $87k and notes a lack of buying support. When institutional ETF holders are underwater and hedge funds face redemptions (lagged effect from Q4), selling pressure intensifies. Without a liquidity floor, the price naturally seeks the next major support level. SHORT/AVOID until the price resets to the $40,000–$50,000 range. The Federal Reserve (specifically Kevin Warsh) could pivot to a dovish stance unexpectedly, triggering a rally.
Crypto Assets
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Marcus Thielen has 7 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 6 tickers since January 2025. Ranked #1697 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: BTC, ETH, HYPE.
Historical call returns are modeled from recorded ideas and stored prices, not actual brokerage portfolio returns. Check the evaluated call set and horizon; past results do not establish future prediction accuracy. Explore our data and methodology
