Marcus Thielen

Thielen notes that ETFs bought $54B of Bitcoin at an average price of $90k, meaning they are currently underwater by ~$10B. He identifies a "liquidity trap" at $87k and notes a lack of buying support. When institutional ETF holders are underwater and hedge funds face redemptions (lagged effect from Q4), selling pressure intensifies. Without a liquidity floor, the price naturally seeks the next major support level. SHORT/AVOID until the price resets to the $40,000–$50,000 range. The Federal Reserve (specifically Kevin Warsh) could pivot to a dovish stance unexpectedly, triggering a rally.

Bitcoin is expected to decline further to the $46,000–$47,000 level as ETF outflows continue, MicroStrategy has stepped back as a buyer, and no near-term catalyst exists. Once that low is reached, a rally to $60,000–$65,000 becomes likely, and he intends to buy Bitcoin below $50,000.

Ethereum is fundamentally bearish because onchain activity does not accrue value to ETH holders, staking yields are unattractive relative to Treasuries, and there is no meaningful buying interest. The price should trade lower.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is overvalued at $72 based on quantitative modeling of trading volumes and buybacks. Volumes have not increased, buybacks are weak, and exchange tokens are unattractive in a low-volume environment. The token is unlikely to reach $100 and should trade lower.