Name: U.S. ‘Technically Bankrupt Already’, Becoming Banana Republic | Peter Grandich
Uploaded: 2025-03-04T17:17:03+00:00
Duration: 2194 s

Speakers

Peter Grandich — Founder, Peter Grandich & Co.

Summary

Peter Grandich says gold is in a long-term bull market that may need a near-term correction, driven by central-bank buying, gold repatriation, and speculation about gold's role in debt restructuring. He is bullish on gold miners and especially junior miners, is cautious on silver until it breaks $35-$36, and sees critical minerals as a needed portfolio exposure. He warns the U.S. debt and deficit path is unsustainable, calling the country technically bankrupt, and expects bond markets to eventually demand higher yields.

Peter Grandich discusses the gold rally and why he expects much higher prices after a healthy consolidation.
He is bullish on gold mining stocks, citing record free cash flow, M&A potential, and better relative earnings.
He prefers junior gold miners, specifically GDXJ, because in-ground resources are deeply undervalued.
He says Barrick and Newmont are attractive laggards as costs fall and profits rise.
He is less bullish on silver until it breaks $35-$36 and would hold more gold than silver.
He warns U.S. debt and deficits are unsustainable and may force higher Treasury yields.
He sees critical minerals as a necessary exposure and says the Ukraine minerals deal highlights shortages.
He doubts a Fort Knox audit would be in the government's interest and says layoffs add economic pressure.

Ideas

Peter Grandich Founder, Peter Grandich & Co. 6:07

Gold still much higher after correction.

Gold is in a long-term bull market. Central banks outside North America have been huge buyers, countries have repatriated gold from London and the U.S., physical trading has shifted toward Asia, and recent unusual transfers of gold out of London may be tied to speculation that the U.S. could monetize gold or use it in a global debt restructuring. After a parabolic rally, he wants a consolidation or corrective phase and would prefer a base below $3,000, but he thinks the move is far from over and sees much higher prices over the coming months and years.

Peter Grandich Founder, Peter Grandich & Co. 9:16

Gold miners have more upside.

Gold mining stocks remain one of the most underowned sectors. Major gold producers are generating record free cash flow, which should lead to large-scale M&A, and gold producers are among the few sectors expected to report dramatically better earnings while U.S. earnings growth flattens. This should attract more generalist investors, with the majors leading and more upside still ahead for the sector.

Peter Grandich Founder, Peter Grandich & Co. 11:08

Junior miners deeply undervalued, GDXJ leading.

He is betting on junior gold miners because they are so undervalued. Some juniors have in-ground resources valued at only $10-$40 per ounce while gold is above $2,800, giving them the potential for triple-digit share-price growth. The junior market finally has the conditions for its own bull market, and GDXJ is starting to outperform, which is needed for the sector to move aggressively higher.

Peter Grandich Founder, Peter Grandich & Co. 14:44

Barrick, Newmont attractive as costs fall.

Barrick and Newmont, which had underperformed gold, are now more attractive because they have seen the turn: they are lowering costs and increasing profits with gold near $3,000, giving them time to make up for prior underperformance. He prefers owning a basket of such producers rather than trying to pick one, but sees more upside in these laggards.

Peter Grandich Founder, Peter Grandich & Co. 16:14

Silver lags until $35-$36 breakout.

Silver remains a laggard compared with gold and still has trouble breaking key resistance at $35-$36. He would own it, but hold twice as much gold as silver until silver breaks out and shows relative strength. He expects silver to outperform gold eventually, in the mature stage of the metals run, but not yet.

Peter Grandich Founder, Peter Grandich & Co. 29:22

U.S. debt may pressure Treasuries.

The U.S. debt and deficit path is unsustainable, with interest expense potentially consuming half of federal revenue. At some point lenders will demand higher interest rates not because the economy is strong or weak, but because they doubt the U.S. can repay its debt. This shifts the bond market toward credit-risk concerns and is a reason to be cautious on U.S. Treasuries or expect higher yields.

Peter Grandich Founder, Peter Grandich & Co. 34:18

Critical minerals are necessary portfolio exposure.

Critical minerals are going to play a role and should be part of a portfolio. The U.S. has severe shortages, and the Ukraine minerals deal, even though development is years away and details remain unresolved, highlights how badly the West needs critical minerals and may expedite domestic resource development. He would look at specialists or funds that acquire these minerals on a larger scale rather than trying to pick obscure individual names himself.

U.S. ‘Technically Bankrupt Already’, Becoming Banana Republic | Peter Grandich

Summary

Ideas

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