Iran Squeezing Saudi Oil on East and West, Schork Says

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 15, 2026 at 20:21  |  5:00  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Steven Schork — President, The Schork Group

Summary

Stephen Schork of The Schork Group argues that Iran has effectively gained control of key Middle East oil chokepoints, squeezing Saudi exports and leaving crude supply precarious. He says physical dated Brent and Dubai cargoes are trading at double-digit premiums to futures, while the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve will hit operational limits by November and global strategic inventories are depleted. Schork warns the U.S. and Iran are in a game of chicken with no Plan C, keeping crude supply risk and backwardation elevated.

  • Iran controls or disrupts Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and the East-West pipeline.
  • Saudi crude exports are trickling out via ship-to-ship transfers; Yanbu has 5-7 days cover.
  • Physical dated Brent and Dubai trade at double-digit premiums to futures.
  • U.S. SPR will be drawn to operational limits by November.
  • Western and Chinese strategic reserves are also depleted.
  • Crude futures curve is in significant backwardation.
  • US-Iran brinkmanship risks a supply inflection in coming weeks.
Ideas
Steven Schork President, The Schork Group 0:14
Middle East squeeze lifts crude premiums.
Iran now effectively controls both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb and the East-West pipeline is disrupted, squeezing Saudi oil exports from both directions. With oil only trickling out via ship-to-ship transfers and Yanbu holding just 5-7 days of export cover, physical crude is tight: dated Brent and Dubai cargoes are trading at double-digit premiums to futures, meaning paper Brent and WTI are underpricing supply risk and are biased higher.
BNO WTI USO HIGH
Steven Schork President, The Schork Group 4:11
Crude curve backwardation signals tight supply.
Crude oil futures are showing significant backwardation—November over December and December over January—as depleted strategic reserves mean buyers are paying up to draw supply out of inventory for spot demand. With no Plan C, the front of the crude curve should remain supported.
Crude oil calendar spread (long front month, short later month) MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 15, 2026, features Steven Schork discussing BNO, WTI, USO, Crude oil calendar spread (long front month, short later month). 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Steven Schork  · Tickers: BNO, WTI, USO, Crude oil calendar spread (long front month, short later month)