Fed To Hike Into ‘Train Wreck’; How Will Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold, Bonds React? | Gareth Soloway

Summary

Gareth Soloway joins David Lin ahead of the September FOMC to argue the Fed will hike 25 basis points and may deliver 50 basis points by year-end. He expects a hawkish Fed to restore confidence and potentially pull long yields lower, while oil is near a top and likely to fall. Near term he remains bullish on the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, is long-term bullish on gold, and warns the AI trade faces margin normalization and revaluation risk. He also sees a broader recession/crisis risk toward 2030.

• Fed preview: markets price a 25bp hike; Gareth expects the Fed to hike and possibly tighten 50bp by year-end.
• Long bonds: he favors Treasuries on expectations that Fed credibility and lower oil bring yields down.
• Stocks: he remains near-term bullish on the S&P 500 above 7,575, with 7,400 as a key invalidation level.
• Bitcoin: bull flag above the 75,500-76,000 support zone, with the Clarity Act as a catalyst.
• Gold: long-term fiat-debasement hedge, but near-term pullback possible; he is not buying immediately.
• Oil: he is short crude at major resistance around $105, expecting $50 before $150.
• AI trade: he warns margins will normalize and parabolic AI stocks face revaluation.
• Long-term macro: he expects a recession and potential crisis toward 2030, though not an immediate trade.