US 2-year Treasury Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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00:15
Sep 15
Sep 15
2-year Treasury yield looks overshot
The 2-year Treasury yield at 4.66% is above the Fed funds rate of 3.5-3.75%, which looks like an overshoot. He suggests yields are too high and could fall.
MED
13:00
Aug 25
Aug 25
Fed hike would lift yields, flatten curve.
Pies argues the market is mispricing the September Fed decision because the meeting is a coin flip and the odds were pushed down to 30-40% despite data that does not alleviate political pressure. If the Fed hikes, he expects the 2-year Treasury yield to rise about 20bp and the 10-year about 12bp per 25bp hike, producing a bear flattening; he rejects the idea that a credibility-restoring hike would bring the 10-year yield down.
HIGH
About US 2-year Treasury Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks US 2-year Treasury across 2 sources: 1 bullish vs 1 bearish calls from 2 authors. Historical directional balance: 0% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 2 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days, before deduplication: 1 bullish. Latest voices: Park Byeong-chang, Warren Pies.