RSX VanEck Russia ETF (delisted) : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

The speaker stated there are "no outright winners" from the Iran conflict, only "relative winners and relative losers." She explicitly named "Norway," "the U.S.," "Canada," and "Russia" as net oil exporters outside the Middle East that are relative winners. These countries benefit as net exporters from elevated oil prices resulting from Middle East supply disruption and uncertainty, while facing less direct regional exposure. LONG on these specific oil-exporting nations as they are positioned to be relative economic outperformers in the current conflict scenario. A swift, peaceful resolution to the conflict and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could cause oil prices to fall sharply, diminishing this relative advantage.

First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) KREMLIN: WE SEE RISE IN DEMAND FOR RUSSIAN ENERGY BECAUSE OF WAR IN IRAN Tweet Link

"Russia's economy is doing so poorly... Is it going to have enough money to continue essentially hiring its own citizens, paying them these high salaries... if the economy is really suffering?" The Russian state is cannibalizing its economy to fund a war of attrition. High wage payouts to soldiers create inflationary pressure while the productive economy hollows out. The macro backdrop suggests eventual fiscal exhaustion or hyperinflationary collapse. AVOID / SHORT (via proxies) Russian assets. China providing unlimited unconditional financial backstopping to Russia.

An impending official downgrade to Russia's economic growth forecast, driven by the impact of sanctions on oil revenue, signals further deterioration of the country's economy.

The Russian government's budget is under significant pressure as the actual price of Urals crude (~$42/bbl) is trading far below the state's budgeted assumption ($59/bbl), implying future fiscal deficits and economic strain.