RHI Robert Half : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

"Hiring of 22 to 25 year olds into AI exposed jobs has dropped 14% since ChatGPT launched. So companies are not firing people, they're just not hiring the next ones." This is a structural headwind for the staffing and recruitment industry. If the "entry-level" rung of the corporate ladder is being automated away, volume for recruiters (Robert Half) and job boards (ZipRecruiter) will permanently compress. SHORT/AVOID Human Capital firms exposed to white-collar entry-level placement. A sudden economic boom could force companies to hire regardless of AI efficiencies, squeezing shorts.

Kashkari shares a specific anecdote: "North Dakota is always structurally short of workers... [now] roughly half the businesses said we're fully staffed. That is the first time in ten years." He adds that businesses are using AI to "get by with what they have." If structurally tight labor markets are now "fully staffed" and companies are substituting AI for headcount, the organic demand for temporary staffing and recruitment is collapsing. This is a direct headwind for staffing agencies. SHORT Staffing Firms as the labor hoarding cycle ends and AI efficiency begins. Re-acceleration of the economy requiring human labor that AI cannot yet replace.