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Feb 18
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—
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SHORT
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Dina Titus
Democratic Congresswoman (Nevada)
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Titus states, "This shutdown really hurts Nevada if you don't have TSA... TSA is going to start missing paychecks... the 1st of March." She notes morale is already low and warns of the impact on tourism. If the shutdown persists past March 1st, TSA absenteeism (sick-outs) will likely spike as agents go unpaid. This causes airport bottlenecks, reducing leisure travel volume, specifically hurting flight demand to tourism hubs like Las Vegas. Short US Travel/Airlines ahead of the March 1st deadline as operational friction risks increase. A last-minute Continuing Resolution (CR) is passed, averting the pay stoppage. |
Bloomberg Markets
Dems, GOP Locked in Standoff Over ICE Reform,...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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Zoe Wang
Global Infrastructure Ratings Director, Fitch Ratings
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The Lunar New Year holiday is 9 days long (longest ever). There is a shift toward "experience-led travel." While luxury goods consumption is down, spending on services and travel is up. Flight capacity is shifting from Japan (due to geopolitics) to domestic and Southeast Asian routes. Trip.com (referenced as "Trip") is up 17%. LONG. Volume-driven growth in the travel sector despite broader economic headwinds. Geopolitical tensions affecting specific routes (e.g., Japan). |
Bloomberg Markets
Chinese Stocks Can't Wait for Holiday Break, ...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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Puneet Atwal
Managing Director & CEO, Indian Hotels Company Ltd (IHCL)
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The speaker notes that demand remains robust across the sector and "the ability to charge will remain with the European companies and with the sector." The supply/demand mismatch (9-12% demand vs 6-8% supply) is not unique to one company but is a sector-wide tailwind. This pricing power extends to global peers operating in the region and the broader travel ecosystem. LONG. The macro setup of rising disposable GDP and "revenge travel" (or spiritual tourism) supports the entire vertical. Geopolitical instability or a slowdown in global discretionary spending. |
Bloomberg Markets
How AI frenzy drove up hotel rates in India's...
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Feb 12
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AVOID
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Dani Burger
Anchor, Bloomberg Television
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"We're looking at the coast guard, FEMA, and TSA" being impacted by the shutdown, while ICE is shielded. The TSA falls under DHS. During past shutdowns, unpaid TSA agents have staged "sick-outs" (blue flu), causing massive airport security delays. This directly impacts airline efficiency, passenger sentiment, and short-term booking volumes. AVOID or SHORT the travel sector (Airlines/Booking) going into the weekend risk of a TSA slowdown. The shutdown might be resolved hours before the deadline, causing a relief rally in travel stocks. |
Bloomberg Markets
Schumer Threatens to Block DHS Funding, Raisi...
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Feb 11
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WATCH
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Senator Markwayne Mullin
Republican Senator from Oklahoma
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"The only thing that the Democrats have shut down right now is our TSA agents... when people started to see those delays at the airport, they really get fed up." While 97% of the government is safe, TSA falls into the 3% "unfunded" bucket. If the CR fails, TSA agents may stage "sick-outs" (as seen in previous shutdowns), causing immediate friction for airlines and travel stocks. Additionally, the unexplained 10-day closure of the El Paso airport adds a layer of idiosyncratic security risk. WATCH. Monitor the Friday deadline closely; if the CR stalls, expect immediate turbulence in airline bookings/operations. CR passes immediately, negating the thesis. |
CNBC
Sen. Markwayne Mullin on DHS funding fight: N...
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Feb 10
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LONG
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Brian Moynihan
CEO, Bank of America
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"In the month of January, we saw our retail consumers... move 5% more money in the economy than they did last January... They're spending on trips, they're spending on things." The market often relies on lagged government data (CPI/Retail Sales). BofA has real-time data on 68 million households. If January spending is up 5% and specifically targeting "trips," the recession/consumer-cliff narrative is incorrect. This creates a dislocation where travel and discretionary stocks may be priced for a slowdown that isn't happening. LONG Travel (Airlines/Hotels) and Discretionary sectors, betting on earnings beats driven by resilient volume. Sticky inflation erodes real wage gains, eventually forcing the low-income cohort to stop spending. |
CNBC
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan: The consu...
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Feb 10
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WATCH
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Anthony Capuano
CEO, Marriott International
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"Just three years ago, we started pushing into the midscale space, and we're seeing some real benefit from that more thrifty consumer as well." The CEO acknowledges the "thrifty consumer" is active but looking for value (the bottom leg of the K-shape). This suggests a trade-down effect. While Marriott benefits via its midscale brands, this macro trend suggests volume strength for Ultra-Low-Cost Carriers (ULCCs) if they can manage costs, as travelers downgrade from premium to budget options. Watch budget travel providers for volume increases, even if pricing power is limited. Fuel price spikes destroying margins for budget carriers who cannot pass on costs. |
CNBC
Marriott CEO Anthony Capuano: The K-shaped ec...
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