| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVOID |
Dani Burger
Anchor, Bloomberg Television |
"We're looking at the coast guard, FEMA, and TSA" being impacted by the shutdown, while ICE is shielded. The TSA falls under DHS. During past shutdowns, unpaid TSA agents have staged "sick-outs" (blue flu), causing massive airport security delays. This directly impacts airline efficiency, passenger sentiment, and short-term booking volumes. AVOID or SHORT the travel sector (Airlines/Booking) going into the weekend risk of a TSA slowdown. The shutdown might be resolved hours before the deadline, causing a relief rally in travel stocks. | — | |
| LONG |
Dani Burger
Anchor, Bloomberg Television |
"ICE is probably going to be shielded by any shutdown considering that the agency was given funding to the tune of $75,000,000." The market often sells "DHS-related stocks" indiscriminately during a DHS shutdown headline. However, private prison operators (GEO/CXW) primarily contract with ICE for detention centers. Since ICE funding is legally ring-fenced, these companies face no revenue interruption, creating a mispricing opportunity if they sell off with the broader sector. LONG or WATCH for a dip-buy opportunity on the "DHS Shutdown" headline, knowing the specific sub-agency (ICE) is solvent. Broader market volatility or political rhetoric specifically targeting private detention centers independent of funding status. | — |