Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan: The consumer is spending and all cohorts are growing

Speakers

Brian Moynihan — CEO, Bank of America

Summary

Bank of America internal data (covering 68 million consumers) shows January money movement increased 5% year-over-year, contradicting fears of a consumer slowdown based on December retail sales data.
Spending growth is visible across all income cohorts (low, middle, and high), with specific strength noted in "trips" (travel) and goods.
Moynihan signals a significant shift in the regulatory environment ("pendulum is swinging back"), suggesting a move away from excessive capital/liquidity stress testing toward "materiality," which would lower compliance burdens for major banks.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
BAC /JPM /WFC /XLF	LONG	Brian Moynihan CEO, Bank of America	"That pendulum is swinging back... we want it to be swung back in the middle... less into writing paperwork about something that was not material." Moynihan is explicitly confirming a deregulatory cycle. For G-SIBs (Global Systemically Important Banks), the "pendulum swinging back" implies a reduction in capital surcharge requirements and compliance costs. If banks are allowed to focus on "materiality" rather than "six sigma" perfection on minor errors, operating margins improve, and trapped capital can be released for buybacks or lending. LONG Major Money Center Banks as beneficiaries of a lighter regulatory regime and improved ROE. Political reversal or a sudden credit event that forces regulators to retighten capital requirements.	—
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY /TRAVEL SECTOR	LONG	Brian Moynihan CEO, Bank of America	"In the month of January, we saw our retail consumers... move 5% more money in the economy than they did last January... They're spending on trips, they're spending on things." The market often relies on lagged government data (CPI/Retail Sales). BofA has real-time data on 68 million households. If January spending is up 5% and specifically targeting "trips," the recession/consumer-cliff narrative is incorrect. This creates a dislocation where travel and discretionary stocks may be priced for a slowdown that isn't happening. LONG Travel (Airlines/Hotels) and Discretionary sectors, betting on earnings beats driven by resilient volume. Sticky inflation erodes real wage gains, eventually forcing the low-income cohort to stop spending.	—
V /MA /AXP	LONG	Brian Moynihan CEO, Bank of America	"Consumer spending... by cohorts of low, middle and high earning people, all are growing." Payment networks are volume-driven businesses. If money movement is up 5% aggregate across all income levels, transaction volumes for the "toll booths" of the economy (Visa/Mastercard) remain robust. Moynihan also dismissed the threat of credit card interest rate caps as "neutral," removing a key regulatory overhang for the payments/credit industry. LONG Payment Processors as a play on continued nominal spending growth without the regulatory tail risk previously feared. Regulatory caps on interchange fees or interest rates actually materializing despite Moynihan's optimism.	—