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Feb 18
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—
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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The speaker points out that "out of 100 things made in the military, there's like 80 that the process is traced back to China" and cites Raytheon (RTX) admitting the US cannot decouple from China. The "Bits to Atoms" thesis implies that the last 30 years of software prosperity masked a hollowing out of US industrial capacity. To compete with China, the US must aggressively re-industrialize and secure military supply chains, leading to massive capex in domestic defense and manufacturing. LONG US Defense and Industrials as the beneficiaries of the forced "re-onshoring" and "Bits to Atoms" transition. Supply chain shocks if China cuts off exports before the US can rebuild capacity. |
Thread Guy
It's Time To Start Chinamaxxing..
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Feb 18
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—
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LONG
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Alicia Levine
Head of Investment Strategy at BNY Mellon
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Lazar forecasts a 12% jump in CapEx for 2026, driven by a "manufacturing renaissance" and heavy truck orders. Levine notes a rotation into "dirty businesses" (making things) as capital flows to the physical world. The AI trade is broadening from digital to physical. You cannot build data centers, factories, or energy infrastructure without materials and industrial machinery. This sector benefits from the "goods producing" jobs multiplier. LONG. Cyclicals are the beneficiaries of the "No Landing" / 4% GDP growth scenario. If the Fed keeps rates higher for longer due to strong growth, financing costs for heavy industry could bite. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
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Julie Biel
Portfolio Manager, Kayne Anderson Rudnick
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Biel states investors have "gotten a bit burned by long-standing software names" and are recognizing they "want to own hard assets, companies that make stuff." There is a capital rotation occurring away from digital/software assets (due to AI disruption fears) toward cyclical upswings in the real economy and "tools providers" in healthcare that are insulated from binary regulatory risks. Long "Hard Assets" and non-binary Healthcare. Economic slowdown dampening cyclical demand. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Gain as Tech Holds Up; Bonds Steady | ...
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
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Brian Levitt
Global Market Strategist, Invesco
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Levitt notes a rotation from "virtual themes" (AI concentration) to the "physical world." The S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) is near all-time highs, while tech has seen 3 weeks of losses. The market is broadening out. As investors take profits in Mag-7/AI, capital flows into undervalued cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials, Energy) and mid-caps that benefit from economic resilience and re-industrialization. Long RSP and Cyclical Sectors. A recession would hit cyclicals harder than cash-rich tech monopolies. |
Bloomberg Markets
Open Interest 2/17/2026
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
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Russ Koesterich
Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock
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Koesterich notes BlackRock is "trimming tech exposure and adding to cyclicals like industrials." Yardeni observes investors moving from "virtual themes to physical themes." The market is experiencing "AI fatigue." Investors are seeking safety and value in the "analog world" (physical economy) which has been neglected during the tech boom. This rotation is not recessionary but a rebalancing of valuations. LONG physical economy sectors. A sharp economic downturn would hurt cyclicals (Industrials/Energy) regardless of the rotation. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/17/2026
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Feb 16
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—
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LONG
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Grace Peters
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Tech valuations are stretched, but earnings growth is broadening (13% growth). "Old Economy" sectors are the beneficiaries of the AI build-out (Industrials building data centers, power generation) and are seeing earnings inflections (Health Care). They offer operational leverage to AI without the valuation premium of the Mag-7. LONG Cyclicals and Defensives (Diversification away from pure Tech). Economic slowdown hits cyclicals hardest. |
Bloomberg Markets
'Shared Values' discussed in Munich; RAM Conc...
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Feb 16
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—
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LONG
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Adam Lynn
Market Strategist / Guest Speaker
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"What's been its weakness for the past few years is now actually playing to its strengths... It's got financials which are performing pretty well. It's got industrials." The US market is heavily skewed toward expensive tech. As global growth expectations rise ("nice cyclical environment"), capital is rotating into undervalued cyclical sectors (Financials/Industrials) where Europe has a heavy weighting. This acts as a valuation floor and a diversification play against US concentration. LONG Europe as a cyclical/value alternative to US Tech. Contagion from a sharp US correction could drag down global betas despite better valuations. |
Bloomberg Markets
US Stocks to Lag European Peers on AI
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Feb 13
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—
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LONG
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Jim Caron
CIO, Portfolio Management, Morgan Stanley Investment Management
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Caron identifies a "cyclical broadening" and specifically highlights Caterpillar (CAT) as a "very strong, very old-school" company employing technology well. While software is hit by AI fears, the "real economy" (Industrials) is benefiting from productivity gains and a shift in labor share to skilled trades (electricians, welders). LONG Industrials. Global economic slowdown reducing demand for heavy machinery. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/13/2026
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Feb 13
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—
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LONG
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Veronica Willis
Global Investment Strategist, Wells Fargo Investment Institute
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Wells Fargo advocates using volatility to buy into sectors outside of big tech, specifically naming Industrials, Utilities, and Precious Metals (Gold/Silver). The tech trade is "stretched." Diversification into real assets (metals) and defensive/cyclical equity sectors offers protection against volatility and inflation stickiness. LONG Defensives and Real Assets. Tech rally resumes, leaving diversified portfolios underperforming. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Lower as Tech Selloff Deepens Ahead of...
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Feb 12
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—
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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"increasing corporate capex will be enough to finally get hiring and wage growth going again." "Private sector hiring was particularly robust." Increased corporate capital expenditure (capex) and robust private sector hiring are indicators of business expansion and investment. Companies within the industrial sector, which provide equipment, services, and infrastructure for other businesses, are direct beneficiaries of this trend. LONG Industrials sector (e.g., XLI ETF) due to anticipated increases in corporate capex and strong private sector hiring signaling broader business expansion. Corporate capex growth slows or reverses; overall economic growth falters; geopolitical events disrupt investment plans or supply chains. |
Nonconsensus
Will a Pickup in Jobs Keep Spending Going?
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Feb 12
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—
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LONG
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Jonah Van Bourg
Global Head of Trading at Cumberland
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Jonah argues against buying raw commodities (like Nat Gas) due to supply gluts, stating one should focus on the "manufactured commodity" or the "machine." Data centers don't need raw gas; they need *electricity* (the manufactured commodity) and physical structures. The alpha is not in the fuel (which is abundant), but in the conversion (Utilities) and the build-out (Construction/Industrials) of the data centers themselves. Long the "Pick and Shovel" plays of the AI build-out (Utilities, Grid, Construction). High interest rates slowing down physical construction projects. |
1000x Podcast
What Does AI Mean For Your Future?
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Feb 11
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LONG
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Josh Brown
CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management
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"I am calling those the Halo stocks... heavy assets low obsolescence risk... Can Claude whip up a can of Diet Pepsi? No." In an AI-disrupted world, capital flees replicable code and flows to tangible, physical assets that AI cannot generate. Companies that move atoms (airlines, manufacturers, staples) have a moat that software companies no longer possess. Long "Halo Stocks" (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence). Global recession reducing demand for physical goods/commodities. |
The Compound News
Is It Time to Buy Software Stocks?
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Feb 11
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LONG
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Joseph Lavorgna
Former Chief Economist, National Economic Council
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"Real goods output is running over 9% annualized rate, which is a real, boom... You mentioned construction. Very good. You mentioned manufacturing up." Lavorgna argues that the economy is undergoing a structural shift led by the "goods sector" rather than services. With goods output growing at 9% and temporary hiring (a leading indicator for manufacturing) turning positive, capital is likely to rotate into industrial and construction stocks which are the direct beneficiaries of this "boom." Long Industrials and Homebuilders to capture the outperformance in the goods-producing economy. If the labor supply constraints mentioned by the host (due to immigration policy) eventually choke off growth, or if the manufacturing data is revised downward like previous jobs reports. |
CNBC
Job market impact from immigration policy 'do...
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Feb 11
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—
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LONG
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Michael Gapen
Chief US Economist at Morgan Stanley
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"Durable goods have been strong. ISM has picked up. Manufacturing output has been on an upward trend." Gapen uses these specific data points to validate the jobs report. If manufacturing output and durable goods are in a confirmed uptrend, the industrial sector is entering a cycle of expansion, justifying long exposure to industrial vendors and manufacturers. LONG Industrials based on hard data strength (ISM/Durables). A sudden reversal in manufacturing demand or supply chain disruptions. |
Bloomberg Markets
This Jobs Report Is 'Largely the Real Deal,' ...
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Feb 11
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—
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LONG
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Enda Curran
Market Analyst / Guest
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"Look at manufacturing, adding, I think it was 5000 jobs. That's a big turnaround from the manufacturing story of last year." The manufacturing sector has been a drag on the economy, but a shift from net job losses to net job creation signals a cyclical bottom. If industrial hiring is inflecting positive, revenue and capex for major industrial machinery and equipment providers will likely follow. LONG. The data suggests the industrial recession may be ending. If the 5,000 number is a statistical anomaly or revised down next month, the "turnaround" thesis collapses. |
Bloomberg Markets
US Adds 130,000 Jobs in January, Unemployment...
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Feb 09
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—
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AVOID
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Barry Bannister
Chief Equity Strategist at Stifel
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The market is currently betting on a "smooth rotation" out of tech and into cyclical sectors, but Bannister argues this trade is premature. Cyclical stocks depend on a healthy economy and consumer buying power. Currently, wage growth is slowing, hours worked are not cooperating, and job creation is weak. There is no fundamental "buying power" to support a rally in these sectors yet. Weak monthly job reports and slowing wage growth data contradict the narrative of a robust economic rotation. If economic data suddenly improves or inflation drops faster than expected, allowing real wage growth to recover. |
CNBC
Bitcoin is not digital gold and behaves like ...
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