Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· 24 июля 2026, 07:46
· ⏱ 7 мин чтения
| Читать в Substack ↗
Резюме
The article argues that American universities, having become the primary unifying institution as churches, the military, and corporations declined, are now failing under the weight of that role because not everyone can attend or complete college, leading to grade inflation and plateauing enrollment. This structural strain has no direct market implications but signals potential long-term shifts in human capital and social cohesion.
•Share of Americans age 25-29 with a bachelor's degree rose from 16.4% in 1970 to 39.6% in 2020.
•College replaced churches, the military, and mass media as a broad socially unifying institution.
•Universities hybridized the British teaching-focused model with the German research-oriented model, enabling cross-subsidization.
•Grade inflation explains most of the increase in college graduation rates since the 1990s (Denning et al. 2021).
•College enrollment by recent high school graduates plateaued in the early 2000s and fell back to early 1990s levels during and after the pandemic.
•A large fraction of young Americans is not prepared for college even with grade inflation, limiting further expansion.