Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· July 22, 2026 at 07:34
· ⏱ 19 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Noah Smith ranks the worst regimes of the 20th century by death toll, intentionality, and ambition, concluding Hitler and the Nazis are the worst, followed by Imperial Japan, the Khmer Rouge, Stalin's USSR, and Mao's China. The article is a historical/political essay with no direct market or investment implications.
•Smith ranks Hitler and the Nazis as the worst 20th century regime, citing an intentional body count of over 30 million and plans for further genocide via Generalplan Ost.
•Imperial Japan is ranked second, with an estimated 6-20 million Chinese killed during its invasion, plus widespread atrocities in Asia.
•Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge killed 1.5-3 million people, about a fifth to a quarter of Cambodia's population, the highest proportion on the list.
•Stalin's USSR is blamed for 10-20 million deaths, including 6-10 million from famine, and deliberate political purges and gulags.
•Mao's China caused 36-40 million deaths mainly from the Great Famine, with an additional 2-4 million from purges and the Cultural Revolution.
•The article distinguishes between regimes with genocidal intent (Nazis, Khmer Rouge) and those where mass death was collateral or accidental (Mao, Stalin).
•Communist regimes are described as a 'chronic debilitating disease' that starved populations via agricultural policies, while fascism was more like 'ebola' — extremely malignant but stopped quickly.
•21st century worst regimes listed are the RSF/Sudan, ISIS, Putin's Russia, Assad's Syria, and Myanmar's Tatmadaw, but with lower death tolls than 20th century counterparts.