=== SUMMARY ===
- The author argues MSFT is undervalued after a selloff, comparing its 0% return since Jan 2024 to Alphabet’s 158% and Amazon’s 58%.
- Thesis: MSFT’s P/E of 22 is near 10-year lows, high CapEx in Azure and AI (OpenAI cloud commitment) will pay off, making the recent drop unjustified.
- Quality assessment: Moderate DD – uses P/E history and relative performance, but lacks deeper financial or competitive analysis; partially speculation.
=== SENTIMENT ===
BULLISH
=== TRADE IDEAS ===
MSFT - LONG | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: +0.80
Speaker: u/479298
Thesis:
1. THE FACT: MSFT P/E at 22, near 10-year bottom (peak 39, avg 30-35); stock flat since Jan 2024 while GOOGL +158% and AMZN +58%.
2. THE BRIDGE: Extreme relative underperformance and low valuation create a mean-reversion and growth re-rating opportunity as Azure/AI investments mature.
3. THE VERDICT: Buy MSFT LEAPS on weakness; the selloff is unjustified given business growth and AI cloud tailwinds.
4. RISKS: CapEx overshoot without revenue acceleration, Azure growth disappoints, macro headwinds further compress multiples, OpenAI switch risk.
Timeframe: medium-term
Key Points:
- P/E 22 near historical bottom
- 0% return vs peers up 58-158%
- Azure + OpenAI cloud commitment
- Author buying LEAPS repeatedly
=== COMMENTS SUMMARY ===
Community sentiment is split: top comment sarcastically praises the DD, a user recalls similar trash talk on AMD/INTC before rallies, and others note too many bullish MSFT posts as a contrarian risk. One comment sold MSFT to go all-in on MRVL, adding a bearish tilt.
Оценка51
Комментарии73
% апвоутов81%
▶ Полный текст поста
After the recent selloff for Microsoft stock i compared it to the performance of Alphabet and Amazon going back to January 2024.
While Microsoft has returned 0% since January 2024, Alphabet has gained 158% and Amazon 58% in the same timeframe.
Microsoft has a current P/E ratio of 22, which has been the bottom within the last 10 years, peaking at 39 four times. The average has been around 30-35.
In conclusion i see Microsoft as very cheap considering the current stock price. Sure CapEx has been high, but the investments will show in Azure growth. OpenAI is obligated to run ChatGPT on Microsoft Cloud, as long as there is capacity available. Besides AI there is still a lot of room for Cloud usage in general, so i dont see a realistic risk of these investments turning into a problem. The business is growing, so the recent selloff seems unjustified.
Bought Leaps 2 weeks ago, bought again last friday and will do so again if the stock keeps falling / stagnating.
Whats going on here?
Коэффициент P/E MSFT составляет 22, что близко к 10-летнему минимуму (пик 39, среднее значение 30-35); акции не показывают динамики с января 2024 года, в то время как GOOGL выросли на 158%, а AMZN — на 58%. Экстремальное относительное отставание и низкая оценка создают возможность для возврата к среднему значению и переоценки роста по мере окупаемости инвестиций в Azure/ИИ. Покупайте LEAPS на MSFT при снижении; распродажа неоправданна, учитывая рост бизнеса и попутные ветры в облачном ИИ. Риски: превышение капитальных затрат без ускорения выручки, разочаровывающий рост Azure, макроэкономические препятствия, дополнительно сжимающие мультипликаторы, риск перехода на OpenAI.