Bloomberg Surveillance 7/7/2026

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 07 июля 2026, 14:36 | 2:24:17 | Bloomberg Markets

Спикеры

Julian Emanuel — Evercore ISI

Matt Bryson — Аналитик, Woodside Capital Management

Torsten Slok — Партнер, Apollo Global Management

Stuart Kaiser — Глава стратегии торговли акциями США, Citi

Janno Lieber — Председатель и генеральный директор, Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA)

Keith Lerner — Директор по инвестициям, Truist Wealth

Ted Mortonson — Старший аналитик-исследователь, Baird

Nicolas Owens — Аналитик акций промышленного сектора, Morningstar

Collin Martin — Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Charles Schwab

The episode focused on market reactions to Samsung’s record earnings that disappointed sky-high expectations, triggering a selloff in memory and chip stocks. Multiple strategists discussed AI capex, rotations within tech, and favored sectors like financials and power generation. Geopolitical themes included NATO summit dynamics and potential European defense diversification. Fed forward guidance shifts were debated. The show also covered SpaceX valuation concerns ahead of its Nasdaq 100 entry. - Samsung record profits miss elevated expectations, driving sharp losses in memory stocks. - Strategists advocate rotation from semiconductors toward hyperscalers and value names like financials. - AI infrastructure theme remains strong, with power generation and memory demand seen as key bottlenecks. - Hyperscaler debt issuance is viewed as crowding out Treasury demand, adding upward pressure on yields. - European defense stocks highlighted as beneficiaries of NATO burden‑sharing and diversification away from U.S. contractors. - SpaceX joins Nasdaq 100, but Morningstar sees overvaluation risk from upcoming lockup expirations. - Fed Chair Warsh’s push to limit forward guidance adds uncertainty, though hike expectations have eased after softer jobs data. - Bull market supported by broad earnings strength across small‑ and mid‑cap stocks.

Идеи

Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 4:34

Rotate from chipmakers to hyperscalers

Profit margins have only risen in the Magnificent 7, not in the rest of the market; the mismatch between high earnings expectations and the time needed to generate ROI from AI investments could lead to overvalued Mag 7 stocks.

Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 5:39

Oil spike unwind bullish for stocks

Oil price decline from triple digits to $70 is one of the fastest spike unwinds on record, and historically the market averages 17% gains in the 12 months following such an oil price retreat.

Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 22:05

Financials offer attractive value now

Financials have record earnings power and attractive valuations relative to other parts of the market, offering opportunity as active managers rotate away from AI.

Matt Bryson Аналитик, Woodside Capital Management 34:09

Memory trade remains strong, stay long

Memory demand is strong, supply remains constrained until 2028, pricing will continue to rise, and long-term agreements provide multi-year visibility; Samsung's result does not signal the end of the memory trade.

Torsten Slok Партнер, Apollo Global Management 46:05

AI debt supply drives Treasury yields up

Hyperscalers are issuing so much corporate debt to fund AI capex that it is crowding out demand for U.S. Treasuries, putting upward pressure on yields and making AI a prominent factor in bond markets.

Torsten Slok Партнер, Apollo Global Management 46:44

Value stocks hedge AI disappointment risk

Value investing provides protection against downside risks if AI does not deliver, as value is not growth and can serve as a hedge in an environment where AI dominates momentum.

Stuart Kaiser Глава стратегии торговли акциями США, Citi 58:53

Banks attractive outside of AI trade

Banks are set up well with a nice IPO pipeline and good trading environment, and they provide an attractive opportunity outside of AI, with strong earnings potential.

Stuart Kaiser Глава стратегии торговли акциями США, Citi 59:05

Power generation is top AI bottleneck play

Power generation has the highest bottleneck in AI infrastructure supply chain, making it the most attractive exposure within AI given strong, persistent demand.

Janno Lieber Председатель и генеральный директор, Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) 67:38

European defense to benefit from diversification

European NATO allies, pressured by Trump and spooked by U.S. unreliability, are diversifying defense procurement away from American contractors toward local and other non‑US suppliers, boosting European defense companies.

Ted Mortonson Старший аналитик-исследователь, Baird 113:44

SK Hynix strong on HBM dominance

Memory fundamentals are historically strong, HBM demand is soaring with multi-year visibility from binding customer agreements, and SK Hynix dominates the HBM segment, insulating it against near-term volatility.

Ted Mortonson Старший аналитик-исследователь, Baird 118:48

Small-cap tech crowded out, avoid

Large cloud titans have locked up supply chains, crowding out small-cap tech companies that lack capital leverage; capital is not unlimited and these smaller players will struggle to secure memory and components.

Nicolas Owens Аналитик акций промышленного сектора, Morningstar 136:31

SpaceX overvalued, lockup supply ahead

SpaceX shares are significantly overvalued with a $62 fair value estimate vs a much higher trading price; staggered lockup expirations will create substantial additional supply, adding downward pressure.