Bonds Under Pressure Despite Oil Relief: 3-Minutes MLIV

Mark Cudmore analyzes oil's short-term tailwind if the Iran-US deal holds, the difficult backdrop for bond yields despite falling oil, and the limited near-term UK gilt selloff despite long-term political headwinds. - Oil prices weaker amid Iran-US deal cynicism; peace not fully priced, offering short-term support if deal holds. - Oil's macro importance is structurally diminishing, reducing its influence on other assets. - US Treasury yields remain sticky and drifting higher, even as oil collapsed, with hawkish FOMC adding pressure. - Asymmetric risk of an oil price spike could push bond yields further up. - Potential UK leadership change from Starmer to Burnham is widely telegraphed. - UK gilts face limited further downside in the short term, but long-term political turmoil is a negative.