US and Iran Make Progress in Talks; Oil Slumps | Horizons Middle East & Africa 6/22/2026

Summary

The show covers US-Iran peace talks making encouraging progress with a 60-day roadmap to a deal, which sends oil lower and lifts Asian equities. BNP Paribas strategist Parisha Saimbi lays out a view for Brent oil falling to $70 before rebounding to $80-85, broad USD strength on a hawkish Fed, USD/JPY targeting 165, and sterling weakness on UK political turmoil. Additional segments highlight the Gulf states' security rethink, Saudi consulting pullback hitting BCG, Ethiopia's election and IMF backing, and Starmer's imminent resignation.

• US and Iran agree on a roadmap toward a final peace deal within 60 days, with technical talks continuing.
• Oil drops as peace progress raises expectations of increased supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
• BNP Paribas expects Brent to sink toward $70 near-term before recovering to $80-85 medium-term.
• A hawkish Fed outlook drives a broad USD rally, with USD/JPY seen climbing to 165.
• Sterling pressured by UK political uncertainty as Starmer's exit and a potential Burnham premiership loom.
• Gulf states are rethinking deterrence postures after being economically debilitated by the Strait of Hormuz closures.
• Saudi Arabia's spending pullback hits consultants, with BCG seen as a major loser from reduced PIF mandates.
• Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed secures a new term with IMF support, but faces security and debt restructuring challenges.