Best Investment Right Now: Stocks, Bonds or Cash?

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 02 сентября 2026, 17:37 | 34:06 | The Compound News

Спикеры

Ben Carlson — Директор по институциональному управлению активами, Ritholtz Wealth Management

Duncan Hill — Соведущий, The Compound

Ben Carlson and Duncan Hill answer audience questions on preparing for a government debt crisis, choosing between stocks, bonds and cash, international stock allocation, where to park short-term savings, handling midlife portfolio swings, and how lifelong savers can learn to spend in retirement. Ben argues a US government debt crisis is unlikely because Treasuries and the dollar have no substitute, but outlines borrowing and shorting the dollar as the hedge if he is wrong. The conversation favors a global market-cap baseline for international diversification, notes AI-driven strength in South Korea and Taiwan, and recommends simple cash vehicles without yield chasing. - Ben sees no substitute for US Treasuries and the dollar, making a government debt crisis unlikely. - If a debt crisis occurred, Ben says the true hedge is to borrow fixed debt and effectively short the US dollar. - In the stocks-bonds-cash choice, Ben would take cash for optionality, while bonds offer around 5% yield. - Ben uses VT's global market-cap allocation of roughly 65% US and 35% international as a diversification baseline. - Duncan highlights emerging and frontier markets as high-risk, high-reward early-stage exposure. - South Korea and Taiwan are called out as AI buildout winners within international markets. - For cash reserves, Ben says most short-term vehicles yield 3.5-4% and investors should avoid chasing teaser rates. - Retirement spending advice focuses on turning money into family memories rather than maximizing inheritance.

Идеи

Ben Carlson Директор по институциональному управлению активами, Ritholtz Wealth Management 3:19

Treasuries and dollar have no substitute.

Ben argues he is not afraid of a financial crisis from government debt because there is no substitute for US Treasuries and the US dollar is the global reserve currency. In a safety-seeking environment, investors would still buy Treasuries and dollars, and he sees the bigger debt risk as political rather than financial.

Ben Carlson Директор по институциональному управлению активами, Ritholtz Wealth Management 3:19

Treasuries and dollar have no substitute.

If a government debt crisis did occur, Treasury yields would spike, inflation would rise, and the US dollar would likely fall hard. The true hedge is to borrow as much money as possible at current rates because inflation would erode the debt; borrowing fixed debt is essentially shorting the US dollar. He mentions gold, Bitcoin, commodities, and euros as possible dollar hedges but favors the borrow-and-short-dollar logic.

Ben Carlson Директор по институциональному управлению активами, Ritholtz Wealth Management 7:45

Bonds now offer attractive five percent yield.

As of today, bond market index funds like BND or AG yield around 5%, which is the best yield among the main asset classes. Ben notes bonds have beaten stocks in about three and a half of every ten years and currently offer attractive income.

Ben Carlson Директор по институциональному управлению активами, Ritholtz Wealth Management 8:31

Cash offers most optionality and flexibility.

In a hypothetical choice among $1,000 cash, VT, or bonds, all are worth the same today, but cash gives the most optionality and flexibility because it can be invested in anything. Ben would take cash even though stocks have higher long-term expected returns and bonds have better yield.

Ben Carlson Директор по институциональному управлению активами, Ritholtz Wealth Management 10:14

Use global market-cap baseline for diversification.

Global market cap, represented by Vanguard Total World Stock ETF VT, is about 65% US and 35% international. Ben says that is a good baseline for US/international allocation; investors can adjust more US or more international from there. International diversification still has a place because country returns vary by decade, US dominance is not guaranteed, and international stocks have come back recently.

Duncan Hill Соведущий, The Compound 13:56

Emerging and frontier markets offer early upside.

Duncan frames emerging and frontier markets as getting in early, similar to investing in private companies: high risk, high reward. Ben adds that the US was effectively an emerging market in 1900, supporting the early-stage upside argument.

Ben Carlson Директор по институциональному управлению активами, Ritholtz Wealth Management 14:36

South Korea and Taiwan ride AI buildout.

AI could level the playing field for international markets. South Korea and Taiwan have become huge players in the AI buildout, and their stock markets have been going nuts—though concentrated in a handful of companies. This demonstrates that international diversification can deliver winners from unexpected places.

Ben Carlson Директор по институциональному управлению активами, Ritholtz Wealth Management 15:24

Diversify into Europe, value, small caps, bonds.

If the AI trade or AI bubble bursts, European stocks are diversifiers because they are not heavily tied to AI, have high dividend yields, and little tech exposure. Value stocks, high-quality dividend/blue-chip strategies, and small/midcaps also have less AI exposure, while bonds would do well because bond yields would likely fall.

Ben Carlson Директор по институциональному управлению активами, Ritholtz Wealth Management 17:13

Park cash in simple Treasury/cash vehicles.

For emergency funds and shorter-term savings, most good options now yield around 3.5-4%, including USFR, short-term Treasury ETFs, money market funds, high-yield savings accounts, and CDs. After moving off zero, incremental yield differences do not move the needle, so the right move is to pick a simple cash vehicle and avoid chasing teaser rates.