ROI not AGI (Guest: Leonid Mironov)
Спикеры
Leonid Mironov
— Портфельный менеджер, Gavekal Capital
Kevin Muir
— Ведущий, MacroVoices
Patrick Ceresna
— Специалист по деривативам, MacroVoices
Guest Leonid Mironov makes a bullish case for Chinese stocks due to anti-involution policies ending deflation. He also favors aluminum and lithium. Co-hosts Kevin Muir and Patrick Ceresna debate oil's asymmetric risk, predict a semiconductor blowoff top in May, and see wheat as an asymmetric long. The discussion covers narrow market leadership and potential rotation.
- Leonid Mironov is bullish on Chinese equities, citing PPI inflation and market reforms.
- Leonid likes aluminum and lithium as commodity trades benefiting from reduced Chinese competition.
- Patrick Ceresna predicts a parabolic top in semiconductors (SMH) within May.
- Kevin Muir argues oil is a no-brainer long due to asymmetric risk from Hormuz disruption.
- Patrick sees wheat as an asymmetric long opportunity after a pullback.
- The stock market is extremely narrow, with semiconductors driving the rally while breadth lags.
- Potential sector rotation after semiconductors peak could benefit materials and copper stocks.
- Bitcoin and South Korea are noted as underperformers in the current environment.
Идеи
China stocks are a buy
Chinese equities are attractive because anti-involution policies are ending producer price deflation, leading to PPI inflation, healthier earnings, and a more responsive consumer. Market reforms incentivize dividends and buybacks, and net issuance turned negative for the first time. Consumer savings are huge and only 7% in equities, poised to flow in as inflation erodes cash.
Long aluminum for margin recovery
Aluminum is a long because China's anti-involution campaign means they will no longer compete on margins down to zero, leading to higher profitability for the industry globally.
Lithium shortages ahead
Lithium is likely to see shortages as early as second half of 2026 due to strong demand from EVs and storage, while anti-involution limits supply expansion. Prices are not stuck at current lows and will rise to incentivize new projects.
SMH parabolic top in May
Semiconductors (SMH) are in a parabolic blowoff top, 53% above their 50-week moving average in just four weeks, similar to silver's recent top. The swing high is likely to occur within May, possibly within days. This does not necessarily mean a market crash but a sector rotation.
Long oil asymmetric risk/reward
Oil is a no-brainer long because the risk/reward is asymmetric: if Hormuz conflict is resolved, oil may fall ~$10 to the low $80s, but if it worsens, oil could spike $30+ to $120-150. Structural inventory depletion and physical market tightness provide a floor, while the market is overly complacent.
Long wheat at pullback
Wheat is an attractive re-entry point on the pullback to the 50-day moving average, as it is an asymmetric trade tied to food shortage and Hormuz headlines, with potential for a sharp move higher.
Далее
This The Market Huddle video, published May 10, 2026, features Leonid Mironov, Patrick Ceresna, Kevin Muir discussing FXI, Aluminum, LITHIUM, SMH, WTI, WEAT. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Leonid Mironov, Patrick Ceresna, Kevin Muir · Tickers: FXI, Aluminum, LITHIUM, SMH, WTI, WEAT